October 20, 2004


STAR POWER: Schwarzenegger plans Ohio trip to boost Bush (Carla Marinucci, John M. Hubbell, October 20, 2004, SF Chronicle)

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger plans a high-profile trip to the presidential battleground state of Ohio on the weekend before the Nov. 2 election -- an effort aimed at pumping up GOP voters and leveraging the governor's star power to boost President Bush's chances of success.

Though the governor downplayed the idea Tuesday of campaign appearances for Bush, insiders said plans are under way for a trip the weekend of Oct. 29 -- enabling the former Mr. Olympia to maximize his influence in Ohio, where he has real estate holdings and a following thanks to his annual Columbus- based Arnold Classic bodybuilding competition. [...]

Schwarzenegger acknowledged that he has suggested a Columbus campaign trip to the Bush team "simply because I introduced his father there in 1988 and also in 1992 -- and it's a place where we do business, it's kind of a second home for me, you know.''

If the race continues to move his way, the President would do well to finish the campaign with a West Coast run, and a bid for HI, WA, OR & CA. He and Arnold would be on the front page of every paper in America on Election Day.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 20, 2004 1:35 PM

Conservatives and Red Sox fans seem to have the common trait of expecting the worst. Others noting this development are saying it is a sign Bush is in trouble in Ohio. It could just be Bush trying to seal the deal.

As for OJ's suggestion I'm much less confident of a 40-45 state blowout at this point but perhaps over the next week the polls will move decisively for Bush. Otherwise he should concentrate on teh midwest states that show promise (IA, MN, WI, etc)

Posted by: AWW at October 20, 2004 1:43 PM

"Hello, Columbus, I am Ahnold ze Gohvernator, und I am here to pump!"-clap!-"you up!"

Posted by: Mike Morley at October 20, 2004 1:51 PM

I wish I was more optimistic, but when I check the Electoral counts, the President looks in trouble. Please tell me I'm wrong.

Also, I predicted a month ago a Red Sox/Astros world series (go Astros). Wouldn't that be fun the week before the election?

Posted by: Jana at October 20, 2004 2:21 PM

I saw a poll the other day that made me quite optimistic about Ohio. The poll claimed that the OH marriage amendment was leading something like 48-45. I don't believe for a second that this number is accurate (has any of these ballot issues passed with less than 60-something percent?), so either a) the polls are asking the wrong people, b) the questions are horribly slanted, or c) people are lying. Whichever is correct, I'd say you should add quite a few points to the Bush numbers...

Posted by: brian at October 20, 2004 2:32 PM

W's stuck @ 47 in OH. He'll lose if he's under 50%.

Posted by: JAB at October 20, 2004 3:03 PM

This place is getting pretty damn funny with all the faith in these polls. Why would anyone believe one word out of anything the media spews out is beyond me. They want a close election, even if they have to fabricate one. Follow the candidates, they know where they stand, and from what I see it looks bad for Kerry. What happened to conservatives being optimistic?

Posted by: BJW at October 20, 2004 4:04 PM

Wouldn't mind seeing 'W' up here in Oregon again. Either way, I'm unswayed from my 40 states expectation.

Posted by: John Resnick at October 20, 2004 5:14 PM


Dream a little dream. Dream, dream, dream...

Posted by: Vince at October 20, 2004 6:01 PM

Bush is up by 3-4 points nationally on average. It would be very, very difficult for him to lose the EV winning by even half that margin.

Posted by: Timothy at October 20, 2004 6:22 PM

But 3-4 points is still too close for my comfort.

Posted by: Ken at October 20, 2004 8:28 PM

I'm a novice at polling so I cling to the idea that an incumbent needs to be over 50% in the terminal phase of an election. W was in last 3 days of WaPo tracking poll, but nowhere else.

Kerry's basically gotten the anti war vote while not losing too much of his normal Dem constituency. No ideas, no platform for governing, but enough to beat an incumbent who's had bad luck and failed to communicate in an unfavorable media environment.

Posted by: JAB at October 20, 2004 10:23 PM

If the election were tomorrow, Bush would win.

If nothing major happens between now and Nov. 2d, Bush wins.
In fact, almost anything major, at this point, would be in Bush's favor.

Spain has a puny military, and a languorous, shrinking population.
America has 1,500 nukes and enjoys wrestling soap operas featuring oiled-up steroidal freaks ignoring the rules and hitting each other with metal folding chairs.
The results of another strike on America would be far different from 11M.
Any terrorist strike, at this late date, would be more likely to result in further Middle Eastern regime change than in electing Kerry.

Bush may not be polling at much over 50%, but Kerry can't break 48%. That won't cut it.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 21, 2004 2:10 AM

Saw 'The Plain-Dealer' today - the only reason OH is close because the state has had (according to the article) 37% of the job losses in the US (since 2000).

The dwindling of large manufacturing firms is not being offset by the creation of small ones. Not that any President could fix that, but people who are in worse shape from one election to the next tend to vote a certain way.

Plus, OH has problems with internal GOP struggles. Has Mike DeWine been out on the stump for Bush? He is much more popular than Voinovich.

Posted by: jim hamlen at October 21, 2004 11:59 PM