October 19, 2004


Kerry unable to gain ground in NJ, poll shows (AP, October 19, 2004)

With two weeks left until Election Day, John Kerry has not been able to gain ground among New Jersey's likely voters, a Quinnipiac University Poll released Tuesday showed.

Of likely voters, the poll showed that 49 percent favored Kerry, with 45 percent choosing President Bush. The poll surveyed 786 likely voters from Oct. 14-17 _ after the third and final presidential debate _ with a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

An Oct. 6 poll showed likely voters opted for Kerry 49-46 percent _ that poll had a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

"Kerry just cannot seem to seal the deal," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It was supposed to be a slam dunk and he's only got a precarious four-point lead."

With OH, and therefore the race, moving out of his reach the question becomes when Senator Kerry switches to defense and whether the President has the fortitude to make a play for Senate seats at that point.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 19, 2004 11:15 PM

Survey USA poll dated 10/19:

Kerry 51
Bush 43

703 likely voters polled from 10/16 to 10/18
MoE 3.8%

I think Kerry is going to keep New Jersey, though Bush swinging through there (with the double dip on eastern PA news coverage) was a shot worth taking.

Posted by: Steve White at October 20, 2004 12:58 AM

10/16 to 10/18 i.e. another weekend poll that skews toward the Dems.

I think the Quinnipiac poll has the race about right - Kerry up by a few but not out of reach for Bush. Bush should definitely force Kerry to pay attention to NJ.

Posted by: AWW at October 20, 2004 1:00 AM

Which poll are you referencing that Ohio is out of reach for Kerry? I think Bush will win Ohio but some recent polls have it tied or Kerry up which has caused some panic on the right.

Posted by: AWW at October 20, 2004 1:06 AM

Probably referring to the Fox poll which has Bush up 5. Also Bushies don't seem too waorried about Ohio, Kerryspot quoted big-time Repub op saying that poll saying Kerry up 2 was absolute rubbish. I'd guess Bushies see our boy up by 3-5 in Buckeye state.

Posted by: Jim in Chicago at October 20, 2004 1:55 AM

Most polls have Kerry up in Ohio and those polls are based on voter registration data from before the time the Dems have registered all dead people from the past two centuries, plus the readers of the Guardian (UK).

Posted by: Peter at October 20, 2004 4:17 AM

Peter: You're letting the Democrats head-fake you out. Pay more attention to what the candidates say and where they travel. Except for some time in Florida, Bush is spending most of the week playing "offense" by raiding swing or Democratic areas. Kerry is spending his time in Ohio in safe "blue" areas and most of the rest of the week in formerly Democratic states now up for grabs. The campaign rhetoric is also instructive. The transparent attempts to raise panic about the flu, the draft, etc. are signs that the Dems are really beginning to get worried about their failure to decisively move the electorate in the debate.

Posted by: Joe at October 20, 2004 5:05 AM

Kerry and Edwards' latest statements about Mary Cheney, the resumption of the draft, ending social security as we know it all reek of desperation and possibly a campaign in full crack-up mode. What's next? Bush is really a space alien sent by the Klingons to enslave humanity? And Michael Moore can provide the proof.

Posted by: Bart at October 20, 2004 10:41 AM

>What's next? Bush is really a space alien sent
>by the Klingons to enslave humanity?

Don't laugh. It's been seriously proposed among some conspiracy buffs -- "The Greys Did It!"

And have you ever heard of "Organic Robotoids"? I've got a tape-exchange from the Kooks Museum: They're exact duplicates of Bush, Kerry, Bill & Hillary, etc, placed in power and manipulated by the Reptoids from the Hollow Earth after they dispose of the originals (assuming the originals ever existed). I've got a bud in PA who keeps an ear out for News of the Weird and relays what he hears to me. (The part about the Reptoid's Organic Robotoid cannibalism hunts in the Oregon wilds is the best part, primarily for the image of Bill Clinton running naked on all fours, howling for human flesh as Hillary runs him on a leash...)

Posted by: Ken at October 20, 2004 8:44 PM