October 23, 2004


Hawai'i Poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heat (Derrick DePledge, 10/23/04, Honolulu Advertiser)

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai'i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.

The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll suggest that Hawai'i's four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.

The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. [...]

Nearly a third of the people who plan to vote for Bush described themselves as Democrats while only 5 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Kerry.

"I'm a Democrat but I strongly support what President Bush is doing," said Jun Elegino, a nursing student at Hawai'i Pacific University who serves in the Army National Guard. "He's my commander in chief."

Leilani Anderson-Kaisa, an educational assistant who lives in Wai'anae and has family in the military, said she had voted for Democrats in the past but believes Bush has done a solid job. "I just think he's been a very good president," she said.

Rebecca Ward, the president of Ward Research, which conducted the poll for The Advertiser, said the findings "do not look like traditional Hawai'i."

Hawai'i voters, since statehood, have only chosen Republican presidential candidates twice; Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. Both Nixon and Reagan, like Bush this year, were running for re-election.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 23, 2004 11:51 AM

I'll be real surprised if this election is close. I don't see much of anything going Kerry's way.

Posted by: AllenS at October 23, 2004 12:55 PM

I thought Harry said there was no way Bush could get close in Hawaii. If it is even close here, it is going to be a landslide nationwide.

Posted by: jd watson at October 23, 2004 1:24 PM


You could go broke fast betting on what Harry "knows"

Posted by: oj at October 23, 2004 1:29 PM

Quick! Send the Bush twins out to the islands for a "Beach Volleyball for Bush" rally. America's young men are counting on you.

Posted by: Mike Morley at October 23, 2004 2:11 PM

If Hawaii is close, how far is Kerry behind everywhere else?

Posted by: Bart at October 23, 2004 2:12 PM

I admit to being stunned by this development. I hadn't thought, until just now, that there was any "bluer" locality in the Union than Massachusetts and the District of Columbia. If Kerry can't do better than a tie in Hawaii - according to that state's leading newspaper, which ought to have some knowledge of political conditions and attitudes there - then the polls elsewhere have got to be drastically off with the actual numbers being at least double the stated figure in Bush's favor.

Posted by: Joe at October 23, 2004 4:19 PM

I dunno, Orrin. I keep offering to bet you a box of pineapples on this and that.

Dow at 11,000 this week comes to mind.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at October 24, 2004 2:27 PM

You welched on the Martinez de-endorsement. I'll bet you the Dow hits 11,000 though, if you want.

Posted by: oj at October 24, 2004 5:53 PM

By Nov. 2?

Posted by: Harry Eagar at October 25, 2004 12:49 AM

No. But, as I said, if it does Bush will win 50-0.

Posted by: oj at October 25, 2004 7:46 AM

Dow at its low of 2004 this a.m.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at October 25, 2004 2:53 PM

Yes, they fear Kerry.

Posted by: oj at October 25, 2004 3:27 PM