October 23, 2004
THE RED WEST:
Hawai'i Poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heat (Derrick DePledge, 10/23/04, Honolulu Advertiser)
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are deadlocked among likely voters in Hawai'i, a surprising boost for the Republican president in a state that many Democrats had considered safe for Kerry.Posted by Orrin Judd at October 23, 2004 11:51 AM
The findings of the Honolulu Advertiser Hawai'i Poll suggest that Hawai'i's four electoral votes are in play with just over a week to go before the election. Nationally, other opinion polls have found that Bush and Kerry are essentially tied for the popular vote.
The Hawai'i Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide between Oct. 13 and Monday, had Bush at 43.3 percent and Kerry at 42.6 percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. [...]
Nearly a third of the people who plan to vote for Bush described themselves as Democrats while only 5 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Kerry.
"I'm a Democrat but I strongly support what President Bush is doing," said Jun Elegino, a nursing student at Hawai'i Pacific University who serves in the Army National Guard. "He's my commander in chief."
Leilani Anderson-Kaisa, an educational assistant who lives in Wai'anae and has family in the military, said she had voted for Democrats in the past but believes Bush has done a solid job. "I just think he's been a very good president," she said.
Rebecca Ward, the president of Ward Research, which conducted the poll for The Advertiser, said the findings "do not look like traditional Hawai'i."
Hawai'i voters, since statehood, have only chosen Republican presidential candidates twice; Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. Both Nixon and Reagan, like Bush this year, were running for re-election.