October 8, 2004
THE 1% SHOULD HAVE TOLD THEM SOMETHING:
Colo. poll has Bush in front (Jim Hughes, 10/08/04, Denver Post)
President Bush leads Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry in Colorado with the support of 50 percent of the state's likely voters to Kerry's 41 percent, according to a new Denver Post poll.
The poll of 630 randomly selected voters, conducted by telephone Monday through Wednesday, shows that 7 percent of Colorado's voters are still unsure how they'll vote Nov. 2. [...]
A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters also conducted this week shows a 49-49 tie between Bush and Kerry in Colorado, which Bush won in 2000. That poll had a 5-point margin of error. It measured Colorado's undecided voters at just 1 percent of the total.
Though they won't win it, CO is a state--unlike NH--where it makes sense for Democrats to burn their money because if they can keep it close they at least have a shot at the Senate seat (though a longshot) and maybe at passing that that screwy electoral vote measure.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 8, 2004 4:28 PM
You know what would be funny as H*ll.
1. Kerry wins the popular vote.
2. Kerry wins the popular vote in CO.
3. The idiot electoral vote measure wins at the same time that Kerry wins.
4. Bush picks up a couple of Congressional Districts in CO.
5. Bush wins the election by one electoral vote.
h-man, that would be the ultimate in irony. As I understand the measure, however, Colorado's EVs would be divided proportionally according to the statewide popular vote, not by Congressional District with two to the popular vote winner as in Maine. That greatly increases the chances that Kerry might try to lawyer his way into an EV win. He could only make it a tie by contesting Colorado so he'd probably try to swing a small state into his column, or look for a couple of faithless electors that could be swayed by an appeal to avoid/threat to repeat what happened in 2000.
Your understanding is correct, that's the way the EV would be split.
Opponents of the measure say that it would ensure that no Presidential candidate ever stops in Colorado again; backers say they rarely stop anyway, and the prospect of winning some EV in CO might tempt at least the less-popular candidate to come to CO.
My opinion is that it perverts the intent of the Founders, and so should not be implemented.
The Kerry lawsuit strategy would only be possible if Bush wins by a razor-thin margin, which seems unlikely.
IMO Bush will either win big, or lose by a razor-thin margin, so really, it's BUSH who might have a legalistic Plan B.