October 24, 2004

RED HAWAII (via mc):

Bush takes lead
in Hawaii poll
(Richard Borreca, 10/24/04, Honolulu Star Bulletin)

President Bush is now ahead of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, according to a new statewide Star-Bulletin and KITV 4 News poll.

The numbers show a shift in Hawaii voters towards the Republican president. The new poll of 612 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the election has Bush with a one percent lead. In August, Kerry was leading by seven percentage points.

The margin of error is plus or minus four points. The poll was taken Oct. 17 to 20 by Hawaii-based SMS Research. [...]

Bush is winning 51 percent of the male vote in Hawaii, while Kerry is picking up 47 percent of the female vote. Bush also leads with more than half of the vote among those 35 to 44 and those 55 to 64. Kerry is strongest in Hawaii with younger voters. He has 60 percent of those 18 to 24 and 54 percent of those 25 to 34.

According to the poll's breakdown along ethnic lines, Caucasians equally support Bush and Kerry. But, Filipino-American voters are overwhelmingly in support of Bush, by a 56 to 36 percent margin. Half of Japanese-American voters support Kerry, while more than half of the Hawaiian and part-Hawaiian voters support Bush.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 24, 2004 5:41 PM

Is Harry still taking bets?

Posted by: h-man at October 24, 2004 7:15 PM

If Bush is clearly winning from the early returns in the east, then Hawaii will go for him too.

Posted by: jd watson at October 24, 2004 9:10 PM

C'mon, Mr. Rove! Bush twins . . . beach volleyball rally . . . a little media coverage, and you'll go up 20 points among males 18-34.

(Hey, a guy can dream, can't he?)

Posted by: Mike Morley at October 24, 2004 9:48 PM

But now we're tied in AR according to a poll on Realclearpolitics.com.

Posted by: JAB at October 24, 2004 10:39 PM


I don't pay any attention to polls, and the Advertiser poll has less credibility than most.

I'm still waiting to see the second Bush/Cheney bumper sticker on this island. I've seen one so far.

The election will not be decided here, of course, but if Kerry is going to lose Hawaii, he needs to lose Maui. Not happening.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at October 25, 2004 12:20 AM

One way or another this will be over by the time polls close in Hawaii, whoever wins two of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida will end up winning the election, or one will be tossed into courts and the issue will be tied up until days after Hawaii has been called one way or the other.

Posted by: MarkD at October 25, 2004 8:33 PM