October 28, 2004

PSSSST, GEORGE BUSH KILLED RAY CHARLES, PASS IT ON:

The 92% Solution: Kerry and the black vote. (Peter Kirsanow, 10/28/04, National Review)

The Kerry campaign's concerns about its candidate's failure to rally black voters in numbers similar to those received by either the Gore or Clinton presidential campaigns have become a staple of the daily news. Whereas in most elections, a candidate's base support solidifies as the election approaches, several polls show that Kerry's black support has actually been eroding over the last two months.

Kerry's late-summer poll numbers among blacks hovered around 84 percent. By early October, that percentage had fallen to 74 percent. In the last several days, the percentages have slipped further. The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies poll puts Kerry's black support at 69 percent. A Pew Research poll gives Kerry 70 percent of the black vote.

Kerry's black poll numbers are ominously lower than those for Al Gore whose share of the black vote in 2000 is estimated to have been 92 percent. The good news for Senator Kerry is that in mid-October 2000, Gore's black poll numbers were around 75 percent — 17 points lower than his ultimate share. If Kerry can add another 17 points as Gore did, he will still garner a healthy 86-87 percent of the black vote.


Break out the Jasper, TX ad!

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 28, 2004 6:39 PM
Comments

"The good news for Senator Kerry is that in mid-October 2000, Gore's black poll numbers were around 75 percent 17 points lower than his ultimate share."

The bad news for Senator Kerry is that it's the end of October.

Posted by: capt mike at October 28, 2004 7:35 PM

I think Kerry will be able to shave up to 5 points or so off that figure, but Bush should still be able to poll 12% to 15% of the black vote, bringing it back to customary modern GOP levels - and considerably better than 2000. This could make the difference in several states.

Posted by: Joe at October 28, 2004 8:55 PM

I say Bush gets 10% or 11% of the black vote.

Posted by: pchuck at October 28, 2004 9:12 PM

And the WashPost reports for duty right on time with a NAACP-being-oppressed-by-Bush story...Lovely.

Posted by: brian at October 28, 2004 11:08 PM

70-30 = Democrats-Whigs. The Washington Post won't stand for this result.

Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at October 29, 2004 4:54 AM

The issue is turnout. If Black turnout is high, suitably inflated by walking-around money and outright fraud, then it's problematic., otherwise it's not.

Posted by: Bart at October 29, 2004 6:26 AM

If minority voter turnout is high it still favors Kerry.

Posted by: Bartman at October 29, 2004 11:06 AM
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