October 7, 2004
President maintains slight lead in Florida: A post-hurricane survey showed the president ahead of his Democratic challenger in the state by 48 to 44 percent. (LESLEY CLARK AND AMY DRISCOLL, 10/07/04, Miami Herald)
After repeat trips to hurricane-battered areas of Florida, where he promised billions of dollars in disaster aid, President Bush has a slim lead in the state over Democratic rival Sen. John Kerry in a race still too close to call, a new poll shows.The post-hurricane survey shows Bush leading his Democratic challenger by 48 to 44 percent in this critical swing state. It's a wider margin than the 48-46 percent lead the president enjoyed in July, but falls within the poll's 4 percent margin of error.
Strategists had expected the Republican president to enjoy a popularity boost from the frequent trips he made to hurricane-damaged areas, but pollster Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, said Bush may have lost all that he gained with a poor showing at last week's debate at the University of Miami.
''He was an inch away from closing the deal,'' Coker said. ``But his performance was so uninspired that we've got a race again, at least for now.''
The survey of 625 likely Florida voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday, days after the pundits had declared Kerry the winner. The poll is sure to heighten the stakes for the second presidential debate, a town-hall-style forum set for Friday in St. Louis.
An awful lot of folks got their panties in a knot over a bit of post-debate volatility in the polls--caused mostly by polling organizations changing who they were polling to include more Democrats and fewer Republicans--but the state polls continue to be deadly for Senator Kerry, suggesting that no Red State is in trouble and that the President will win many Blues. This will force the Democrats to play defense in the final weeks--they're already pulling out of places like VA, AZ, and MO--and will soon see them scrambling just to try and save a few Senators who could otherwise be carried out by the tide. Something to keep in mind when you're making your Prognostathon picks. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 7, 2004 9:32 AM
"an inch away from closing the deal". Exactly. I still find it hard to believe 1 debate could decide the election but Bush needs to come through Friday night and prove the last one was an aberration or this is going to come down to the wire. I know the state polls still look good for Bush but if he keeps stumbling that will change.
Posted by: AWW at October 7, 2004 9:59 AMBremer and Deulfer report are working strongly to substantiate Kerry's charges.
State polls seem to lag national for some reason.
It's bad. W needs to change the dynamics or he's going to get passed right at the finish line.
Posted by: JAB at October 7, 2004 10:54 AMAWW:
Who'll be watching Friday night? Normal Americans will be at high school football games or watching baseball playoffs.
Posted by: oj at October 7, 2004 10:57 AMI'm not sure who a Normal American is, but I'm quite sure the Undecided Voter will be doing something else Friday night.
Posted by: curt at October 7, 2004 11:44 AMAnybody who uses these stupid non-debates to choose a President rather than looking at their behavior in office shouldn't be allowed to vote, drive a car, or handle sharp implements.
Posted by: Bart at October 7, 2004 11:49 AMWould the press change their votes if Bush 'wins' the debates? No. Then why do they expect much of America to? Their lust, and their foolishness, is palpable.
Posted by: jim hamlen at October 7, 2004 11:52 AMThe NRA is running 30 minute anti-Kerry infomercials in Colorado.
They don't mention Bush, but they show disaffected Massachusetts voters speaking against Kerry, and then at the end there's a brief plug for Pete Coors.
Has that happened with past candidates ?
I've never seen anything like it, except for Perot's national buy.
"...shouldn't be allowed to vote, drive a car, or handle sharp implements."
Bart, would you allow them to breed?
Posted by: Bartman at October 7, 2004 2:56 PMThe blogs are pointing out (but not the MSM of course) is that the Duelfer report substantiates a lot of what Bush is saying. But of course Bush will have to shout this out to get past the MSM spin.
For the debate to cause such a swing either the polls before overstated Bush's lead or the polls after are understating it. The Newsweek poll certainly seems flawed but with all of the others saying its tied it doesn't look good.
As for state vs national polls I've always believed the state polls tell a better story than the generic national polls -we'll see if the state polls start moving towards Kerry as well.
OJ - if no one watches Friday night are you saying Bush can't do anything to improve his position?
Posted by: AWW at October 7, 2004 4:33 PM