Too bad they've cratered in the LAT and Newsweek polls. They failed the debate test.

I'm bummed.

In order to show movement Newsweek had to go back to polling Registereds, didn't they?

Newsweek also completely changed the ratios of Dems and Repubs in their new poll compared to the previous one.

LAT is the same paper that tried so ferociously to derail Arnold's campaign last year, and their own internals show that when it comes to what the candidates actually _said_, as to _how_ they said it, viewers' opinions haven't changed significantly.

Newsweek, as JD (and others) noted, changed its sampling from poll to poll. In fact, this is the very same Newsweek that Democrats got so upset with a month or so ago because their poll (which, as most people acknowledged, oversampled Republicans) had GWB up by 11 points. Now they oversample Democrats and get a result favorable to Kerry. And we're supposed to take this as a foretelling of the Apocalypse?

LAT poll was not intended to be representative. They just measured before/after debate preferences. Bush no change. Kerry +1. BFD.

I was just over at realclearpolitics.com. The commenters there were making some good points that call into question the validity of the NewsWeek poll above and beyond the fact that it's source is NewsWeek:

• In an ABC Snap Poll of 531 registered voters, Bush lead 50% to 46% before the debate and 51% to 47% after the debate.
• Rasmussen has Bush's lead at 3% among likely voters in the 2 days following the debate. Essentially the same as the pre-debate lead.
• A Democracy Corps poll of likely voters showed Bush up 50% to 46% prior to the debate and up 50% to 48% after the debate.
• An LA Times poll of 725 registered vote watchers had Bush down 47% to 48% before the debate and down 47% to 49% after the debate - essentially no change in a sample that favored Kerry going into the debate.
• The Newsweek poll was of 1013 registered - not likely voters.
• The Newsweek poll shows Bush's job approval at 46%!? (Rasmussen is at 53%)
• The Newsweek poll shows men favoring Kerry over Bush 47% to 45%!? Apparently not even Bob Dole did this badly in 1996
• The Newsweek poll was done late night and during weekends which apparently favors democrats
• The Newsweek poll included 6% more Democrats and 6% fewer republicans than the previous poll showing a 10% Bush lead - might account for a 12% shift, no?
• The Newsweek poll included 345 Republicans, 364 Democrats and 278 Independents which adds up to 987 - not 1013

Personally I don't think Bush did that well in the first debate, but I saw him decisively lose a debate to Al Gore in 2000 and then move up in the polls. So I wouldn't be surprised if the NewsWeek poll is just the first chapter in the MSM Kerry comeback story.

OK. I feel better but not as good as I would if W had been prepared for a debate. I love the guy, but he really missed an opportunity. Fortunately, Kerry said an awful lot of stupid things so we have something to work with.

And as this very topic makes clear, JAB, Team Bush is moving fast to exploit the opening Kerry gave them.

JAB - I wish Bush did better as well (especially since it could have finished Kerry off) but I believe a) he was tired after visiting hurricane victims all day while Kerry got a manicure, and b) he will do much better in the 2nd debate.
The fact that most polls are showing little change while 2 well known Dem leaning polls (LAT and Newsweek) show a move toward Kerry would have happened even if Bush crushed Kerry.

Next ad -- Kerry's moral equivalency of North Korea and the United States: We cannot ask and expect NK to stop nuclear proliferation unless we stop research on nuclear bunker busters that we need as leverage to convince Dear Leader that there is no place to hide.

Very nice site. Keep up the good work.

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