October 21, 2004
JUST 'CAUSE I LIKE IT DOESN'T MEAN I BELIEVE IT
News poll: Bush leads in Michigan:State still up for grabs since president's support remains below critical 50 percent (Charlie Cain and Mark Hornbeck, Detroit News, 10/21/04)
President Bush has moved ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry in Michigan, according to a Detroit News poll, but hasn’t reached the critical 50 percent support plateau — suggesting the state remains in contention as the presidential race draws to a close.For months now, the broad polls have been showing a tight head-to-head race with bad approval and "wrong way" numbers for the President, while more narrow polls have shown the President making inroads into every traditionally Democrat constituency: Jews, blacks, women and certain blue states. Predictions as to who will win now come down to whether the predicter thinks that the voters will more nearly resemble the electorate in 2002 (Bush wins) or the electorate in 2000 (Kerry wins). I predict that Bush wins walking away, but the polls are useless between now and Halloween. Posted by David Cohen at October 21, 2004 9:57 AM
I agree with you, David.
If Kerry were popular enough to win, not only would he be aggressively campaigning in a dozen more states than he is, but he'd also have the donations to pay for it.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 21, 2004 10:24 AMHell of a lot of fraud out there.
Posted by: Sandy P at October 21, 2004 10:53 AMThe article seems to imply this is a must win for Bush. Gore won MI by 5 in 2000 so it is really a must win for Kerry. I don't know how valid this poll is - it may be sending a false positive signal for Bush (like polls in NJ, PA) or is sending the message that Kerry is toast.
Posted by: AWW at October 21, 2004 11:03 AMIf Kerry were popular enough to win, not only would he be aggressively campaigning in a dozen more states than he is, but he'd also have the donations to pay for it.
Huh? They're federally funded now. He can't legally get any donations.
Posted by: jesse at October 21, 2004 11:07 AM"Huh? They're federally funded now. He can't legally get any donations."
If only it were that simple. As with every law dealing with politicians and the acquisition of money, the idea that a wall exists between the two is an illusion meant to fool you.
The candidates are fund-raising on a daily basis. E.g., http://washingtontimes.com/metro/20041017-111447-2690r.htm
Posted by: curt at October 21, 2004 12:03 PMHere are the results of my own extremely scientific polling, conducted during my commutes.
Bush to Kerry bumper sticker ratio: 5:2.
You heard it here first.
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at October 21, 2004 12:08 PMOne of my soft-headed liberal buddies from college emailed me and said that, "a vote for Kerry is a vote for peace, a balanced budget and a better environment". I was waiting for the "sunshine, bunnies and loolipops" line, but it failed to show.
I emailed him asking me why he felt the need to do this, knowing my political leanings. He replied that I live in a swing state and every vote counts. I am almost positive he was serious. Folks, I live in Nebraska.
As an aside, I have seen more Kerry signs than Bush signs in my neighborhood. I am not worried about this because it is Nebraska. The Bush people know this and they haven't spent a lot of money here, heck I had to donate $5 for my Bush-Cheney sign. On the other hand, the Kerry people are wasting money in Nebraska. My wife was given a Kerry sign for free and they went around the neighborhood doing this. The state of the Nebraska Democratic party is not good and the only reason I could think of for them wasting the money is to generate some enthusiasm for the party.
Yes, my front lawn has a Kerry sign and a Bush sign. The neighbors must think we are crazy. My response is that I'm not crazy.
Posted by: pchuck at October 21, 2004 12:53 PMInteresting phenomenon here in Indiana that my wife and I both have noticed; the number of yards with signs for local and statewide Democrats (Kernan, Bayh, Parra, etc.) but no Kerry Edwards sign. True even for the Ironworkers Union Hall. I wonder if there's a shortage of signs or if there's some deeper meaning.
Posted by: Jeff at October 21, 2004 12:57 PMI just read this on the NRO's Kerry Spot about Maureen Dowd's appearance on the Imus Show:
"I think that it was wrong and stupid to drag [Mary Cheney] into it . . . It just seemed smarmy to me."
Maureen Dowd is the queen of smarmy.
I really don't put too much stock in this jittery talk from Democrats because you can find jittery talk from Republicans.
pchuck:
I read in the World-Herald the other day that Kerry signs are outnumbering Bush signs in Omaha by four-to-one. Huh? I'm a UNO student and Bush bumper stickers appear to be outnumbering Kerry bumper stickers on campus.
Posted by: Matt Murphy at October 21, 2004 2:54 PMMy housemates want to put up a Kerry sign, but I said that fair's fair, if a Kerry sign went up, a Bush sign was going right next to it. Hence, so sign. Yes, my house resembles The Young Ones.
Posted by: Governor Breck at October 21, 2004 3:00 PMMatt:
I don't understand why the Kerry signs are up in Nebraska, I think it is a waste of money.
I know why the Bush signs are so few because Nebraska is a lock. They are wisely spending money over the Missouri River in Iowa.
We shall see.
Posted by: pchuck at October 21, 2004 3:07 PMI believe MI has a marriage amendment on the ballot. Since those always win huge, it seems silly to put any such state (MI, OH, OR, etc) in the Kerry corner.
Posted by: brian at October 21, 2004 3:13 PMAs badly as I wish it were otherwise, there is no way Bush takes Michigan unless Kerry is caught with the proverbial dead girl or live boy. The Unions negotiated a vacation day on election day specifically for the purpose of marching the Union sheep to the poll, and Ann Arbor might as well be Berkely. I've also seen more Kerry signs than Bush signs in my own yard and I live quite a bit north of Detroit, what should be Bush Country.
On the other hand, two years ago Jennifer Granholm (AKA Governor Barbie) was 10 points up on incumbent Lt. Governor Dick Posthumus, and only won by 5. Something to remember when some talking head says undecideds always break for the challenger at the end.
Posted by: MarkD at October 21, 2004 7:34 PMThe Young Ones - always a smile when I hear about them.
Posted by: jim hamlen at October 22, 2004 12:23 AM