October 7, 2004
GET YOUR PICKS IN:
Bush wins, according to econ models: Plug in income and inflation for vote projection output (Emily Church, Oct. 6, 2004, CBS.MW)
An Economy.com model gives Bush 373 electoral college votes, well ahead of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. Kerry lands only 10 states, according to the model -- Illinois and California are the only two outside a handful of East Coast states.
The model seeks to guess voter behavior by looking at per capita income growth and inflation trends in the states. It also plugs in some non-economic factors such as a political party's share in the last presidential election.
The model does suggest "President Bush is going to win a big victory," said Gus Faucher, a senior economist from Economy.com, a consultant. [...]
A second econometrics model -- the President Vote Equation designed by Yale University professor Ray Fair -- has consistently shown a Bush win. In July, the equation predicted a 57.48 percent vote for Bush.
The model uses U.S. growth and inflation figures among its key inputs. Fair expects to update the PVE one more time before the election at the end of October once the third quarter U.S. GDP estimate is released. But he said he doesn't expect the PVE projections to change much.
"I expect we're pretty close on the final (third quarter) numbers," he said.
The Brothers Judd 2004 Presidential Prognostathon has gone live, you can make your picks and they'll be saved as your contest entry. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 7, 2004 12:13 AM