October 29, 2004

FINAL FAIR (via Robert Schwartz):

Presidential Vote Equation (Ray Fair, October 29, 2004, Fair Model)

With the release of the NIPA data on October 29, 2004, all the actual economic data are available for the vote prediction. The actual values (as of October 29, 2004) of GROWTH, INFLATION, and GOODNEWS are 2.9 percent, 2.0 percent, and 2, respectively.

Given that the actual economic values are close to the values used for the previous vote prediction, the current vote prediction is little changed. The new economic values give a prediction of 57.70 percent of the two-party vote for President Bush rather than 57.48 percent before.


No one's ever lost an election with an economy this good.


MORE:
Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election (LEIGH STROPE, 10/29/04, AP)

Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting. [...]

"Some show the margin of victory being smaller than the models' inherent margin of error, while others report the lead as substantial. And this is without the consideration of a third-party candidate."

Bush's win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent, 55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated Oct. 22 and prepared by the department's Employment and Training Administration staff for the assistant labor secretary.


Posted by Orrin Judd at October 29, 2004 7:36 PM
Comments

So if Bush loses it demonstrates either (or some combination) of the following:
1. Voters think his foreign policy is spectacularly incompetent.
2. Voters think disagree with an aggressive, radical foreign policy.
3. The media is as powerful and biased as the conservatives think it is.
4. Voters are stupid and we need to restrict the franchise before it's too late.

Just a thought starter.

Posted by: JAB at October 29, 2004 9:13 PM

LGF:

The airing of a tape of Osama bin Laden capped a week of bad news for President Bush that threatened to derail his candidacy in the final days of the presidential election.

For Mr. Bush, it was one piece of bad news after another — news reported of hundreds of tons of explosives looted in Iraq, tens of billions more for the war. And late this afternoon, a tape of bin Laden airing nationwide, where America’s chief adversary appears in good health and secure.

Even before the latest bin Laden tape, Sen. John Kerry had put President Bush on the defensive in the final week of the presidential election.

Posted by: Sandy P at October 29, 2004 9:21 PM

Sandy P: You of course left off the real source of that quote. It's from a CBS "news" story.

Posted by: brian at October 29, 2004 9:34 PM

#4. Even though he wins. With a hefty dollop of #3.

Posted by: jsmith at October 29, 2004 11:19 PM
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