October 9, 2004
CONGRATULATIONS, MR PRIME MINISTER
Opposition leader Mark Latham has conceded defeat in the federal election.Prime Minister Howard won an easy victory, increasing the ruling Coalition's share of the vote after a bitter election that the polls claimed was deadlocked. The challenger, Mr. Latham, made clear that he thought the Iraq war a mistake that made Australians less safe in the world. John Kerry's sister, speaking for the campaign, agreed with him. Posted by David Cohen at October 9, 2004 8:22 AMAddressing the party faithful in Sydney, he congratulated John Howard on his election victory.
Mr Howard has won a fourth term as Prime Minister and he will return to government with an increased majority in the Parliament.
If Latham won the MSM would make it a referendum on Bush.
Since Howard won, it will be page 15 below the fold.
Posted by: JackSheet at October 9, 2004 8:57 AMDavid:
Thank you for the update.
But a fourth term? How long are Australian terms?
Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at October 9, 2004 9:04 AMThank you, GOD!!! Not a bad twelve hours overall, for Western Civilization.
Posted by: Andrew X at October 9, 2004 9:06 AMAustralian terms are three years - barring a no-confidence vote, the Prime Minister has to call an election within that time period I think.
Posted by: HowardH at October 9, 2004 9:18 AMThe impression I was getting was that Howard was a goner, and it wouldn't even be close. Is it too much to hope that we will see the same thing here in a few weeks?
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at October 9, 2004 12:38 PMMr. Ortega;
Yes. Tim Blair who is usually an astute right wing analyzer of Australian politics has been presuming a strong Latham victory for weeks. The fact that Howard gained instead of pulling out a squeaker is what's really devastating to the Left.
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at October 9, 2004 3:15 PMThank goodness. I was getting a little worried that some of our allies were getting a little wobbly.
I'm going to go buy some Foster's just to celebrate.
BTW, I started praying the Rosary several times a day. I am confident about things in the world, but praying evens out the highs with the lows.
Posted by: pchuck at October 9, 2004 4:02 PMThis is another confirmation that polls are not reliable. They seem to lean left in all our allied countries just as they do here. Ron Silver told Roger Simon that he did know some closet Bush fans in Hollywood, but absolutely could not reveal their names, leaving Simon wondering how the vote would go when folks actually get into the secret booth. Wow, people nervous to speak out if they are for Bush, and I know some of them.
I find this encouraging for our own election. Many folks don't enter into the debate, they just quietly go to vote for the guy who gets it - like they do - that the western world is under a heretofore unknown threat of the most heinous kind, and we need protection against it. And it's not that ugly institution, the UN, that will do it. Congratulations Mr. Howard!
Posted by: DL Meadows at October 9, 2004 4:13 PMApparently, the last poll taken before the election (done by A.C. Nielson's Australian subsidiary) was pretty accurate on the final result, which as I've said before, isn't surprusing, because only the political junkies remember any of the polls after the election is over except for the final one. So long as the poll isn't too far outside the mainstream, timing, voter poll, geographic location and other variables can be molded in whatever what the pollster and its sponsor like to produce the desired result.
In the U.S., wait for the polls from Oct. 29-Nov. 1. Those are the ones the polling firms will be held accountable for after the election, so those are the ones that will be the mostly likely to be as accurate as they can make them.
Posted by: John at October 9, 2004 4:55 PMAnd Jeb Bush was ripe to lose to Bill McBride . . .
Posted by: AC at October 9, 2004 6:16 PMI will notify the Board where the election story appears in tomorrow's NY Times. My expectation is somewhere after the weddings and the chess column.
Posted by: Bart at October 9, 2004 9:05 PM