October 19, 2004


October surprise (Harry R. Jackson Jr., 10/19/04, THE WASHINGTON TIMES)

This year's October surprise will be a critical mass of the black, Christian community standing up for biblical concepts of righteousness and justice. These courageous black voters will attempt a risky, but important strategy.

They will attempt to act as the conscience of the party that currently seems, to many, so insensitive to the plight of the poor and needy. They will vote for President Bush and hope for major policy adjustments in six vital areas: protection of biblical marriage; wealth creation opportunities for minorities; educational reform, which emphasizes urban change as a priority; African relief that stops genocide in the Sudan by placing trade sanctions on that nation; prison reform that rehabilitates inmates with spiritual solutions; and health care for the poor.

No, I did not say that the majority of blacks will vote for Mr. Bush. But a critical mass of 20 percent or more will break the dead heat we are observing today.

How about a geometric progression: 16% this time and 32% in '08.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 19, 2004 1:17 PM

This is good news and I hope it happens; however, I wouldn't bank on it happening. Black voters are the most loyal Democratic voters. If we can chip away some, that is great for them and great for us but I wouldn't count on it.

Posted by: pchuck at October 19, 2004 1:28 PM

KerrySpot is noting a poll showing it at 18%.

Posted by: Timothy at October 19, 2004 1:29 PM

With Condi on the ticket, that 32% goes 'way up.

(You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.)

Posted by: Mike Morley at October 19, 2004 1:51 PM

When the Black vote stops acting in accordance with Earl Butz's famous quote, let me know.

Posted by: Bart at October 19, 2004 2:03 PM

Earl Butz is still alive and kicking at 94.

He also took shots at the Pope also, regarding birth control.

"he no playa da game, he no maka da rules"

Posted by: h-man at October 19, 2004 2:40 PM

Mike Morley:

Unfortunately, even if Dr. Rice were on the GOP ticket in '08, 32% of the black vote would be about the maximum support she'd draw, and it probably wouldn't be that high.

Back in '96, when Colin Powell was being widely discussed as a potential Presidential candidate, many of my black co-workers felt that Powell "wasn't black enough", expressed in exactly those words.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 19, 2004 7:13 PM


32% of the black vote would still be more than enough to give the Democrats serious hysteria fits, because the African-American vote is a bloc they absolutely must have to win elections. If that bloc splits in a major way, they're in serious trouble.

Posted by: Joe at October 20, 2004 5:12 AM