October 11, 2004


Bay State Poll Results: State Residents Will Vote For Kerry, But Think Bush Will Win (Merrimack.edu, 10/10/04)

Overview of Bay State Poll

-- 50% of Massachusetts' residents are planning on voting for John Kerry, but 60% believe President Bush will win in November. [...]

These findings come from the Bay State Poll, a quarterly survey of Massachusetts's residents, conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research at Merrimack College. Eight hundred and five (805) randomly selected state residents over the age of eighteen were interviewed by telephone between September 25th and October 5th, 2004. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. Detailed results and methodological information are available at www.merrimack.edu/polling.

50% in his home state with respondents true feelings revealed in the who'll win number.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 11, 2004 1:12 PM

Don't forget all the Republicans in MA who didn't bother last time (because it didn't matter), but will now just so we don't have to listen to whining about the "Popular Vote" for the next four years.

Posted by: mike earl at October 11, 2004 1:15 PM

This is really, really bad news for Kerry.

Everytime I read one of these polls in which a significant number of people say they're planning on voting for Kerry, but also say they think Bush is going to win I can't help but think two things:

1) many of them are lying about who they're really going to vote for. Bush's real level of support is much higher, as people will vote for a perceived winner over a perceived loser.

2)Kerry is in seriously deep trouble.

Posted by: H.D. Miller at October 11, 2004 1:39 PM

If nothing else, this will drive the Kerry voters to stay home. If you believe that your guy is gonna lose by 50% (60/40), there's no reason to even make the effort to vote.

Posted by: ray at October 11, 2004 3:10 PM

Whether or not Kerry wins, the fact that he's only polling at 50 percent in his home state three weeks before the election is in its own way even worse than Al Gore not carrying his home state against Bush in 2000. At least in Gore's case Tennessee is part of a south that has trended Republican over the last 35 years; for Kerry to get barely a majority in arguably the most liberal state in the nation should be keeping his campaign staff up nights (and wouldn't bode well for a Kerry presidency if he does get elected, seeing that the Bay Staters know him better than anyone else).

Posted by: John at October 11, 2004 4:19 PM

oj was right. Kerry should have resigned his Senate seat. These numbers don't look so hot for reelection.

Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at October 11, 2004 4:27 PM

>Many of them are lying about who they're really
>going to vote for.

Considering that a "Bush/Cheney" bumper sticker can get your car keyed, tires slashed, or windows smashed, or a "Bush/Cheney" sign in your front yard can get a brick through your windows, why invite trouble?

Just quote The Party Line along with all the Comrades, then stick it to them in the voting booth or wherever they can't trace you.

Posted by: Ken at October 11, 2004 5:41 PM

But Orrin is against private ballots, so in the United States of Orrin, if you were fearful of intimidation, the only solution would be to vote for Kerry or stay home.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 12, 2004 8:28 AM

Anyone who can be intimidated by the Kerryites shouldn't have a vote anyway.

Posted by: oj at October 12, 2004 8:38 AM

Kerry is not well-liked in Mass. The last person to actually run against him was Weld, who had
worn his welcome fairly thin as it was.

Posted by: J.H. at October 12, 2004 9:18 AM


Are we then to go back to rule by the biggest and strongest ?

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at October 12, 2004 5:25 PM


Posted by: oj at October 12, 2004 6:17 PM