October 21, 2004


New battleground polls
keep Bush 'in the red'
(Tom Curry, Oct. 20, 2004, MSNBC)

A new round of MSNBC/Knight Ridder polling in five battleground states that President Bush carried four years ago shows the president with the upper hand in West Virginia, Missouri, and Colorado over his Democratic challenger John Kerry, and very slim leads in Ohio and New Hampshire.

And another survey in Nevada found Bush with a strong 10-point lead over Kerry. [...]

The Ohio poll found Bush clinging to a statistically insignificant lead over Kerry in the Buckeye State, 46 percent to 45 percent, with a large number of respondents, eight percent, saying they were still undecided.

The MSNBC/Knight Ridder surveys, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, interviewed 625 likely voters in each state. The polls had a margin of error of four percentage points.

The longer John Kerry thinks he can win OH the uglier the final results of this election get.

The Blue States poll is embargoed until 6:30pm tonight, but if those states are at all close it's difficult to justify Mr. Kerry playing offense, unless Democrats hate George Bush so much they're willing to get creamed down-ticket.

OOPS: RedState.org got the Blue States numbers and they're very ugly for the Senator. Apparently he is paying attention though, as witness this hastily added trip into MI. Looking back folks may well consider that scheduling decision to be the moment the race officially ended.

News poll: Bush leads in Michigan (Charlie Cain, and Mark Hornbeck, 10/21/04, Detroit News)

President Bush has moved ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry in Michigan, according to a Detroit News poll, but hasn’t reached the critical 50 percent support plateau — suggesting the state remains in contention as the presidential race draws to a close.

In the initial installment of a poll that regularly will track voter sentiment in the final two weeks of the campaign, Bush held a 47 percent to 43 percent lead over the Massachusetts senator. The incumbent president’s lead is well within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The statewide poll of 400 likely voters was taken Monday and Tuesday.

Most recent polls have shown Kerry with a narrow lead in Michigan. A Detroit News poll in June had the candidates virtually tied, with Bush at 44 percent and Kerry at 43 percent.

-Bush Opens Up Lead in Wisconsin (United Press International, 10/21/04)
U.S. President George W. Bush appeared to have opened up a lead in Wisconsin, a 2004 battleground state, according to Thursday's Gallup Poll.

Among likely Wisconsin voters, the poll said, Bush has taken a 6-point lead, 50 percent to 44 percent over Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee.

-Bush still leads Kerry in Colorado (Adam Schrager, 10/21/04, 9NEWS)
President George W. Bush is holding onto his lead over Sen. John Kerry in the latest 9News poll conducted by Survey USA.

The survey was conducted Tuesday through Thursday and included 597 likely Colorado voters. The results show if the election were held today, 52 percent of those surveyed would vote for Bush and 45 percent would vote for Kerry. Two percent chose other candidates and 1 percent remain undecided. The poll's margin of error is 4.1 percent.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 21, 2004 2:46 PM

Come to Youngstown, Senator! Visit every day from now to the election! I'll buy you a beer at the Polar Bear on Mahoning Avenue. You can even shoot some more geese if you want to. . . . Why, of course I'm only thinking of what's best for the campaign!

Posted by: Mike Morley at October 21, 2004 2:52 PM

The Blue polls have leaked out at RedState. Bush is up in 3, tied in one and down by only 1 in three. Considering Bush will beat the polls by about 2 points (says I), this remarkably good news.

Posted by: Timothy at October 21, 2004 2:56 PM

The red state polls look ok for Bush but the blue state polls look bad for Kerry so good news for Bush. And things seem to be trending toward Bush.

Slightly OT - saw a post somewhere where someone, crunching numbers, found a way Bush could get 53-54% of the vote but lose the electoral vote by a few. The reasoning behind this was that Bush creams Kerry in the red states but barely loses in the the big blue states like PA, MI, NJ, and red state OH or Florida.

A very close result allowing Kerry to throw the election into the courts is worst case scenario #1, a big Bush popular vote win but EV loss would be worst case scenario #2.

Posted by: AWW at October 21, 2004 3:03 PM

When Dick Morris was working for Clinton, he did a sophisticated study of the electoral college. What he found was that the popular vote winner will be the electoral vote winner, unless the margin of victory is .8% or less, where it could go to the popular vote loser. (It was .4% in 2000)

What is disturbing is that there will be enough close states that Bush's win will not be beyond the margin of litigation. Look for Kerry to decalre victory and start putting a cabinet together while the lawsuits rage. (Thank you Al Gore!)

Posted by: G. Eugene at October 21, 2004 6:22 PM

Eugene -that is the fear (Kerry litigation) but these polls and the trend toward Bush are making it more likely Kerry would have to sue in a whole bunch of states which would look ridiculous.

Posted by: AWW at October 21, 2004 11:51 PM

Unless the election is razor close (like 2000), don't expect Kerry to litigate. He doesn't have the guts or the nerve (and probably not the lust). Gore had all three. Kerry's fecklessness will lead to a limp concession speech and a quiet retirement (in the Senate, of course). He can probably even keep his attendance record at the same level for the next several years.

Posted by: jim hamlen at October 22, 2004 12:35 AM