October 15, 2004


Deeply split Nevada is still up for grabs (Sam Stanton, October 15, 2004, Sacramento Bee)

Reno Precinct 443 takes in neatly kept neighborhoods of cul-de-sacs and emerald green lawns, where the streets have highfalutin names such as Aristotle Drive and Icarus Court, and where 1,214 registered voters will help decide the fate of the nation Nov. 2.

Last time around, Reno 443 split evenly, with 379 people casting votes for George W. Bush and 379 for Al Gore. This year, the president is hoping for a repeat of 2000, when he won Nevada and its five precious electoral votes.

Nevada is one of several Western states still at play in the election, and one of more than a dozen nationwide where the race is considered a dead heat.

One poll has Bush leading John Kerry here by just five percentage points, a survey that has a margin of error of four points. And both campaigns understand the importance of winning a state that has sided with the victorious candidate in every election since 1912 except one, the 1976 race in which Jimmy Carter beat President Ford.

Hard to believe an incumbent president with a five point lead isn't in pretty good shape, though he'll have to widen that considerably to knock out Harry Reid

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 15, 2004 6:08 PM

The Sacramento Bee is one of the most loony left daily fishwraps in the country. If they admit to Bush being ahead by 'only' 5, then he's probably up by 15.

The in-migration into Nevada has been overwhelmingly White and from California. There are a lot of 'South Park' Republicans, the type of young independent who voted heavily for Arnie but also for Ventura in Minnesota. In a time of war, they are patriotic but are turned off by the 'culture war.' Bush had a lot of trouble with these voters but given a choice between Bush and Ketchup Boy, Bush is the clear winner.

Posted by: Bart at October 15, 2004 7:09 PM

In Australia it seemed like Latham might win right up untill the poll. That's because the Media pursuaded themselves he would then tried to sell it on and election day left them looking like idiots.

I suspect something similar will happen in the US, after Kerry gets annialated people will be asking 'come on, you didn't really think that guy would win did you?' Kerry, like Latham, is an unserious buffon up against a hardened wartime leader wit a recovering economy.

The media wants a race, so they're fabricating one, but when people vote they don't vote to please leftist jackass newspaper editiors, they vote seriously, in their own and their nation's interest.

Posted by: Amos at October 15, 2004 11:45 PM

Amos - I suspect (and hope) that your theory of a large Bush win that will only become apparent on election day is correct.

Posted by: AWW at October 16, 2004 2:33 PM