October 31, 2004
40 HEADED FOR 50:
MASON DIXON - A PRETTY GOOD MEASURING STICK (Kerry Spot, 10/31/04, National Review Online)
Mason Dixon was the most correct pollster in 2002, picking the right winner in 22 out of 23 polls. Their average error on each candidate was 1.8 percent.
Posted by Orrin Judd at October 31, 2004 12:10 PM
Their results released Saturday night:
Frankly, Zogby is better for national Pres. polls (though dreadful in state and off-year polling). Presumably this is because he slants Dem by about 3% to account for the "increased turnout" in Pres. years (ie, voters who don't show up in polls because they're in prison or the cemetery).
I ran the new M-D numbers with the L.A. Times' interactive EV map ( http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash - which is, by the way, a fun way to wargame the various paths to victory for Bush). If those numbers hold up, Bush wins handily, 296 to 242, assuming that NJ and NH go blue as the latest report on the Kerry Spot indicates. Considering other scenarios, Bush will also only need one of either Ohio or Florida to win if he wins Iowa and either Minnesota or Wisconsin and New Hampshire or Hawaii, which brings him to 273 (if it's Ohio) or 280 (if it's Florida).
Powerline has early Iowa voting and it's Kerry.
That's based on a sample of 218 early voters. Huge margin of error.
Re: early voting in Iowa trending toward Kerry. The University of Iowa and ISU have set up a number of polling stations for early voting. So it is possible that a large percentage of students have already voted.
I also read that, among those who voted on Election Day in 2000, Bush had a small but significant lead.
So I would not write off Iowa. Among Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, I think Iowa is the one most likely to go for Bush. Wisconsin second. If Minnesota goes for Bush, it will be part of a national EC landslide -- with possibly Michigan and Pennsylvania going for Bush also. I am not predicting this will happen.
Hawaii is being absolutely swamped with radio, TV, and telephone advertising for the Dems. There is essentially no Republican media presence. Which tells me one thing--the Dems know they MUST have HI to win, and are terribly worried about it. The Republicans don't have to win the state. Sending Cheney may seem like an awful big resource to waste on a head fake, but that's what it looks like to me.