September 7, 2004

WHY LIE?:

Where Things Stand With 56 Days To Go (Charlie Cook, Sept. 7, 2004, National Journal)

Two consecutive surveys showing a lead for President Bush of 11
points and a third at seven points (if you prefer likely voter screens) strongly suggest that he's not just a point or two ahead as he was going in, and that something really did happen. Several long-time political pros, including some on the Republican side, suggest the true bounce will result in a Bush lead of five or six points, which is still a very respectable boost and larger than what Kerry got from his convention. The next question is how sustainable will it be. After all, then-Vice President Al Gore had a lead bigger than this coming out of Labor Day
weekend in 2000, only to see it dissipate after his first debate (the one where he seemed to do an imitation of "Leave it to Beaver"'s Eddie Haskell).

That's simply a falsehood. He led narrowly, just as he won narrowly.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 7, 2004 8:31 PM
Comments

OJ, it was the polling two weeks later that gave Gore his big lead, and came after 10 days of the bogus DemocRATs controversy started by the New York Times, which all the other media picked up and ran with. Then it was Gore's actions at the first debate (more like Louie DePalma than Eddie Haskell IMHO) that sent his numbers plunging.

Posted by: John at September 7, 2004 9:34 PM

Maybe he's quoting the Zogby poll.

Posted by: Jeff at September 7, 2004 9:57 PM

Charlie Cook whom I've always respected seems to be undergoing a meltdown this year. Perhaps, he sees that as a White Southern (Louisiana) Democrat operative, he'll have no clientele. Once you've been prowling around K Street, being a greeter for Wal-Mart is a real comedown.

Posted by: Bart at September 7, 2004 10:28 PM

Can I just say how much I like this site? My other favorites don't update at this prolific rate and to read a site run by Christian conservatives and find it making alot of sense is a big deal for me since I'm not religious and befor 911 would have seen myself as much more of a secular humanist. These days I'm starting to agree the SH philosophy is a bit of a cultural and personal dead end.

Anyhow, since you're not getting paid for this exellent service, you may as well know your site rocks. Sorry, I'm not sending any money though

Posted by: Amos at September 7, 2004 10:44 PM

Don't do that, Amos. His head's swollen quite badly enought already, and that with The Wife's boot on his neck.

Posted by: joe shropshire at September 7, 2004 10:52 PM

I don't know why OJ's head is swoll. I am still waiting for the Kerry resignation.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at September 7, 2004 11:32 PM

I'll add my praise for OJ's site too. In fact, I like it so much I do think about sending money.
I haven't yet, but I sure would hate to see him follow Steven Den Beste. :-(


Posted by: fremont_fan at September 7, 2004 11:36 PM

May as well make poor Mrs. Judd's life more miserable (but since she is probably a combo of Hayek and Thatcher, I suspect my pity is wasted) and add to the thanks and adulations for a great political and topical web site.

Amos: Watch out, Mr. Judd quite actively recruits for the dark side.

Posted by: Buttercup at September 8, 2004 7:09 AM

I have sent money, and I implore others to do the same.
It's as easy as pie with a credit or debit card, just click on the Amazon Honor System icon. Few among us will miss $ 5 or $ 10 charged to a credit card, it's a lunch, or a cheap book or video/DVD.
For me, the site is as entertaining as any of the magazines I subscribe to, the cheapest of which costs $ 10/year, most more, and it's easily as informative as any college course I've taken, any of which cost me at least $ 285, plus books.
In addition, we get to put in our $ .02, and the sometimes wise folks who run the site come argue with us !
What a deal !
If you have a credit/debit card and can spare a dollar, why not show your support for this most excellent site in a very American way, by voting with your cash.

The poll result that I found most interesting from the CNN tracking poll was the question:
Who will do better in the debates ?
Answer: Gore 44%, Bush 36%

I'd love to see what this year's results are; if they're anything like the above, Kerry can't win the debates unless Bush shows up drunk, since Bush will have low expectations for him, and Kerry's got low charisma.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 8, 2004 8:09 AM

The press has been building Kerry up as the wise, thoughtful, patient, and considerate candidate for almost 9 months. They won't portray him as stupid until AFTER the debate(s) - despite how shallow he has proven to be. And to think that the Boston media has known for 15 years how empty he is!

Posted by: jim hamlen at September 8, 2004 8:35 AM

Based on my observations, oj and the Wife are humble, charming, and not the least bit miserable. As for Dr. Judd's resemblance to the Iron Lady, I believe her urge to invade an Atlantic island chain fell to the Time Zone Rule.

Posted by: pj at September 8, 2004 8:42 AM

Donations are fine if they are expressly labeled as "not for use to buy books." The Cabana Boy's "real job" deadline is looming, although I suppose if Kerry actually resigns, I may give him a 2 week reprieve for sticking to his guns in the face of massive opposition. Anyone with any respectable employment ideas?
And I actually don't subscribe to the time-zone rule. I may be nutty but I'm not whacko.

Posted by: at September 8, 2004 9:22 AM

Donations are fine if they are expressly labeled as "not for use to buy books." The Cabana Boy's "real job" deadline is looming, although I suppose if Kerry actually resigns, I may give him a 2 week reprieve for sticking to his guns in the face of massive opposition. Anyone with any respectable employment ideas?
And I actually don't subscribe to the time-zone rule. I may be nutty but I'm not whacko.

Posted by: The Wife at September 8, 2004 9:22 AM

When's the last time you left the Eastern Time Zone?

Posted by: oj at September 8, 2004 9:29 AM
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