September 6, 2004
WHAT DOES TIME KNOW:
What Matters Now (ADAM NAGOURNEY, 9/05/04, NY Times)
This presidential campaign has been marked by a succession of what were considered Big Moments, anticipated by both sides as a way of unlocking a stubbornly deadlocked contest. And while the verdict is out on Mr. Bush's convention - beware polls taken over the Labor Day weekend, which can be quite unreliable - it seems safe to say that at least going into last week, none of these once reliable big moments have proved to be very big at all.
Even some Republicans were conceding that Mr. Bush's convention - described by Republicans and Democrats alike as a success - might not ultimately make that much of a difference.
"When it comes to actually affecting undecided voters, conventions are probably a draw for both parties," said Scott Reed, a Republican consultant who managed Bob Dole's 1996 campaign.
CNN/Time Poll: Gore, Bush tied; 1 in 5 voters undecided (Keating Holland, September 8, 2000, CNN)
Al Gore and George W. Bush are virtually tied in the latest CNN/Time poll, and with one in five likely voters saying they could change their minds between now and November, this race is wide open.
Gore has erased the double-digit lead Bush held this summer by using the Democratic convention and his campaign in the subsequent weeks to convince voters he's a strong and decisive leader who agrees with them on the issues. [...]
The CNN/Time Poll, conducted September 6-7, 2000, consisted of interviews with 1,275 adult Americans, including 735 likely voters.
Suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included Al Gore and Joe Lieberman as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, Pat Buchanan and Ezola Foster as the Reform Party candidates and Ralph Nader and Winona LaDuke as the Green Party candidates. For whom would you vote?
Sampling error: +/-3.5% pts
Posted by Orrin Judd at September 6, 2004 6:27 AM