September 21, 2004

VINDICATING JIM BAKER:

Poll: 69% of US Jews will vote for John Kerry (THE JERUSALEM POST Sep. 21, 2004)

Reports indicate that a new survey by the American Jewish Committee, scheduled to be released Wednesday, finds that only 24 percent of
American Jews would vote for President Bush, while 69 percent would vote for Senator John Kerry.

The finding represents a remarkable 23 percent drop in American Jewish support for President Bush since last December, when an AJC poll found that 31 percent of American Jews would vote for President Bush at that time.

Due to the margin of error associated with polling, there is statistically no difference between AJC's finding of President Bush's support today and his support in 2000 among American Jews. Voter News Service exit polls found that then-Governor Bush received 19 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000.


Politics is seldom self-less, but it's pretty remarkable how consistently Republicans champion positions that favor blacks and Jews considering how little support it wins them.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 21, 2004 8:00 PM
Comments

I am proud to be among the 24% and I just spoke to an old friend earlier this evening and she, too, is proud to be among the 24%. What do she and I agree on? That Jean-Francois would be a nightmare for Israel. The problem with J-F is that his dream that the US and Europe will once again make nice is so all-consuming that there is every reason to believe that if the Europeans insist on selling Israel out as a price for their cooperation with the US, J-F will agree.

Jackie Mason and Raoul Felder recently noted that of Jews polled, only 15% indicated that Israel's safety was a concern in connection with this election. Well, as they pointed out, there are 6,000,000 reasons why the other 85% are simply deluding themselves. I agree.

Posted by: Morrie at September 21, 2004 8:44 PM

Nonetheless, it is right and important that President Bush (and Republicans in general) continue their policies, even if the payoff isn't anywhere in sight. Come to think of it, that's a rather Jewish position: Do the deed because it's the right thing to do...

Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at September 21, 2004 9:18 PM

So, he's getting 5% more of the vote?

Could be enough.....

Is it me or the margin-of-error getting bigger?

Posted by: Sandy P at September 21, 2004 10:01 PM

If a 5% increase in support is within the margin of error, and therefore not statistically meaningful, why is a 7% drop in support (from 31% to 24%) reported as "remarkable"?

Posted by: H.D. Miller at September 21, 2004 10:27 PM

I'm not sure why it would be perceived that the outcome of the US Presidential elections will affect Israel's safety.

For some time now, America has been, in effect, bribing Israel not to start (or end) anything in the Middle East.

If Kerry were to be elected, (O savage day !), and in Jan. '05 were to announce to the world that Israel was on her own, that the US would no longer back her or guarantee her safety, all that would happen is that a lot of Arabs would die in '05.
Possibly millions.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 21, 2004 11:40 PM

30% would be a 50% increase. I think it is methodologically perilous to mix small sample prospective pools with undisclosed time frames with larege sample exit polls. We shall see what we shall see. I am hopefull that the president will do better than 30%.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at September 22, 2004 1:19 AM

But the GOP should strive to hold those positions because they are right, not because they benefit one group or another. That's why we're stupid.

Posted by: Buttercup at September 22, 2004 6:43 AM

One way we can increase the number of Republican Jews by one is by getting Dr. Laura back.

Posted by: Joseph Hertzlinger at September 22, 2004 12:25 PM

Some prices are too high to pay.

Posted by: David Cohen at September 22, 2004 12:34 PM

That's OK, the Democrats support a lot of issues that favor farmers or working class folk in red states, and they don't get votes for that either.

Strange, when Democrats point that out, you call them arrogant for thinking they know better than the people what their best interests are. But when Republicans do it, it's because they're principled.

Sure.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at September 22, 2004 12:54 PM

Chris:

No they don't.

Posted by: oj at September 22, 2004 12:58 PM

I do think that we've come to a point where Israel is not a particularly Jewish issue any more. Lots of Jews are uncomfortable with an Israel that is not the scrappy underdog and is actually defending itself against terror. The number of Jews who are single issue voters on Israel is probably less than the number who are single issue voters on abortion. My impression is that Israel is now more an issue for the religious right than for Jews.

Posted by: David Cohen at September 22, 2004 2:30 PM

. . . a new survey by the American Jewish Committee -

This group is notoriously left-leaning. I wouldn't trust their results. They tend to slant questions to get their desired result in hopes of influencing Jews to vote Democratic.

Posted by: Oswald Booth Czolgosz at September 22, 2004 8:37 PM
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