September 5, 2004

THE PLAYING FIELD KEEPS SHRINKING:

Oh, So Close! Bush has Slight Lead in N.M. (Andy Lenderman, 9/05/04, Albuquerque Journal)

President Bush had a slight edge over Democrat John Kerry in a Journal poll of New Mexico voters, completed as the candidates prepared for the final two months of the campaign.

Bush had 45 percent support compared to Kerry's 42 percent in the Aug. 27 to Sept. 1 survey of 908 registered voters statewide.


That's all voters and before the convention, reindorcing the point that, except for the Pacific Coast states, John Kerry isn't going to be competitive anywhere south of Maryland/DC.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 5, 2004 2:38 PM
Comments

Some people are worried about Rasmussen's tracking poll for today showing Bush only 2 points ahead of Kerry after being at 49% - 45% for the last few days, but I wouldn't sweat it. Rasmussen's results have been on the cautious side all along and, more to the point, the results from the polls taken over the weekend (and taking into account the full effect of the convention) won't be available until after Labor Day. Once those numbers are available, I would expect GWB's advantage to widen in almost every poll.

Posted by: Joe at September 5, 2004 3:02 PM

It's not a real poll.

Posted by: oj at September 5, 2004 3:09 PM

If Bush can win New Mexico, this could be a landslide. All the demographic trends work against him. While the Hispanic population there is probably the most assimilated in the nation, it is still heavily Democratic. The Native American tribes are traditionally Democratic.

The immigrants to the other states are different from most people who move to the Rockies. Santa Fe and Taos are artists' colonies, i.e. leftist cesspools. The senior citizens developments there are more downscale than in Arizona or South Texas, as the weather is worse in the winter and just as difficult in the summer.

There is a Republican base among the majority Anglo voters of Albuquerque, Farmington, Hobbs, Las Cruces and other cities. But Roswell is a major destination for illegal aliens.(sorry)

The governor is Democrat Bill Richardson.

Posted by: Bart at September 5, 2004 3:27 PM

If you include Illinois-- The Land of Daley isn't going vote GOP and tens of thousands of dead Democrats will make sure of that-- it seems you could make that west of DC, too.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 5, 2004 3:37 PM

I believe Gore won NM (barely) in 2000 so this would be another pickup. As Bart notes the governor is Bill Richardson so you would think he would help Kerry pull this out.
To Raoul's point - I can easily see the electoral map all red except for the Northeast, NY, the Pacific Coast, and IL sitting like a blue island in a sea of red.

Posted by: AWW at September 5, 2004 10:42 PM

Richardson won there because he's positioned himself as a moderate. Kerry didn't even have the courtesy to seriously consider him for VP. He's more likely to endorse the President than make a big effort to win the state for Kerry.

Posted by: oj at September 5, 2004 10:46 PM

Richardson did have that problem with security at Los Alamos under his watch which would have been an absolute disqualifier had he represented himself as the Anglo he is, rather than as a poseur in La Raza. He's going to sit around and wait to be the VP on Hillary's inclusive 'Look Like America' 2008 ticket.

He's too big for Santa Fe, literally and figuratively.

Posted by: Bart at September 6, 2004 7:37 AM
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