THE GUARANTOR:

Talk of poll delay worries Sistani (Dexter Filkins, September 24, 2004, NY Times)

The Ayatollah, who earlier this year sent tens of thousands of Iraqis into the streets to demand early elections, is said to be worried that a so-called "consensus list" of candidates being discussed among the larger political parties would artificially limit the power of the Shiites, who are in the majority.

Under an agreement reached among exile groups in the early 1990s, the Shiites were said to comprise about 55 per cent of the population.

Ayatollah Sistani, the sources say, believes that the Shiite population has swelled since then and therefore would be under-represented on any single list based on a 55 per cent figure.

Ayatollah Sistani also expressed concern that the Iraqi Government, possibly under US pressure, would postpone the elections under the pretext that the anarchical conditions that prevail over much of the country would make the results illegitimate, the sources said.

"If he sees that what this is leading to is unfair and unfree elections, then he will not take part in it," an Iraqi close to Ayatollah Sistani said. "He will declare the elections to be illegitimate."

Since the Americans toppled Saddam Hussein, Ayatollah Sistani has largely stayed away from engaging in the minutiae of partisan politics, but he has aggressively pushed for democratic elections as soon as possible.

Iraq will be a democracy because the Ayatollah demands it. Without his imprimatur no one could govern the country.

N.B. One wonders if the folks who are moaning about the prospect of elections going forward in 15 of the 18 Iraqi provinces think Abraham Lincoln's second term was illegitimate because the Southern states weren't polled.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 23, 2004 7:20 PM