September 12, 2004

SWEET NOVEMBER:

Coalition holds off efforts to take rebel-run cities: US surgical strikes continue, but no major move is expected before November. (Howard LaFranchi, 9/13/04, CS Monitor)

Iraqi forces and the American military are increasing their surgical, often retaliatory, strikes into towns like Ramadi, Fallujah, and Samarra, where forces of Islamic extremists and of the former regime hold varying degrees of power and sway. Some have become "no-go" zones.

Iraq's interim government announced Saturday night that its forces had begun "military operations against terrorists" in the Sunni insurgent stronghold of Fallujah and in Tal Afar in the north. Sunday, Brig. Gen. Carter Ham told the Washington Post that about 200 fighters remained in Tal Afar, and the general expected the insurgents would be driven out in "a week."

State Minister Kasim Daoud said the operations were being carried out in conjunction with American and other multi- national forces.

But with Iraq's security forces still in the building stage, the task of purging Iraq's trouble spots at this stage would largely fall to the Americans. So far they show no signs of undertaking the full military offensives that many here say will be necessary.

US and Iraqi officials offer differing perspectives on why the extremist bases are being tolerated. Last week Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld placed any decision to terminate the insurgents' presence by force squarely on Iraqi shoulders, saying it was a decision for interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

On Friday, Mr. Rumsfeld said in Washington that the extremist enclaves would "eventually" be brought under Iraqi authority. "We know what will take place in Fallujah, and that is that it will be restored as something under the control of the Iraqi government eventually. What we don't know," he added, "is whether it will be done peacefully or by force."

If force is necessary, US officials say they want properly trained and equipped Iraqi forces to lead the charge and hold the cities afterwards. But they add that sufficient forces aren't yet ready.
US elections a factor

Yet while Iraqi officials agree that their forces are not yet up to the task, they also say the Americans are reluctant to undertake any offensive before the Nov. 2 presidential election - and especially any offensive that would almost certainly entail heavy civilian and US military losses.


The chief advantage of fighting a delusional enemy is that they actually think they're winning, so they'll flock to these regions and make it easier for us to kill them.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 12, 2004 6:34 PM
Comments

Good thought. Non-Westerners can sometimes fight bravely, but they frequently fight stupidly, disregarding basic military principles. The Japanese army in WWII was a case in point, making uncoordinated attacks, seriatim, in instances where a massed offensive would have achieved the objective.

Please don't try to suggest that the North Vietnamese won their war: what they won was the post-Treaty of Paris dolchstoss.

The camel-jockeys, on the other hand, are very much bereft of military virtue. Their combination of incompetence and cowardice did not begin with the last two Gulf Wars. Suicidal fanaticism does not equate with valor. It is rather a manifestation of thr consciousness of failure

Posted by: Lou Gots at September 12, 2004 7:22 PM

Those areas may be no-go areas for our troops, but apparently not for our JDAMs. That's a big difference from previous wars.

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at September 12, 2004 7:47 PM

Belmont Club has mentioned this classic insurgency/counter-insurgency dynamic, the attempt by government forces to corral or lure the insurgents into areas where they can be killed. The difficulty for CI forces is finding the insurgents, not beating them, so if you can lure these idiots into believing they have safe areas, then trap them in them, you have half the battle won.

My feeling is that the US public is distracted with the election, allowing the army a good chance to kill alot of terrorists without the bleeding heart international left intervening.

I notice it's now practice to evict journalists too, and recently an Arab newman was killed by an American helicopter. All good.

Posted by: Amos at September 12, 2004 8:37 PM

Oh Harry, where art thou...

Posted by: joe shropshire at September 13, 2004 2:00 AM

I notice it's now practice to evict journalists too, and recently an Arab newman was killed by an American helicopter. All good.

The story is that the bad guys blew up a bradley. But the crew escaped. They called in air support which rocketed the bradley. Why haven't they done this before. 13 Arabs, including the aforementioned "journalist" died.

If we start doing this more frequently. they will start saying away from our vehicles.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at September 13, 2004 3:09 AM

There must be fewer sights more agravating to a combat airman than a shreiking mob of savages jumping all over a disabled US vehicle. I wonder how many of his missiles 'strayed' slightly from their intended target into the nearby crowd? And exactly how surgical his 3mm counterfire was?

Posted by: Amos at September 13, 2004 7:24 AM

Kill a few swarms, and they will all go away.

Posted by: jim hamlen at September 13, 2004 10:59 AM

Flies to honey, flies to honey.

Posted by: Mikey at September 13, 2004 2:25 PM

Meanwhile, we're busy creating an Iraqi national consciousness where none existed before.

Can it coalesce before we kill everybody?

It's a race we shouldn't even be running, and wouldn't be if one of two things had happened:

1. We had pulled out and let the Iraqi settle their own scores, as Orrin advocates.

2. We had had enough infantry/police to squelch the resistance early on.

Now, if we can get out of this, we'll have to kill a lot more people than we would have had to earlier. Not that I see a downside to that.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at September 13, 2004 3:47 PM

Nor is there any downside to a national consciousness--in fact, there's a huge upside. But it's unlikely that the Sunni are forging bonds with the Shi'a by resisting their rule.

Posted by: oj at September 13, 2004 3:54 PM

My point from the start, Orrin.

It wasn't me that imagined an Iraqi destiny.

But given enough effort, one could be created, the same way Rumania was created out of material just as unlikely

Posted by: Harry Eagar at September 13, 2004 9:21 PM

Kurdistan was already gone ten years ago.

Posted by: oj at September 13, 2004 10:50 PM
« ANYTHING YOU SAY, MR. DELAY: | Main | EXTINCTION BY DESIGN: »