September 7, 2004
Election 2004 (APSANet)
Elections Forecasting is now available at this page. As additional forecasts come in they will be added to the summary list and links to explanations or relevant papers will be added. PS: Political Science & Politics will run a forecasting symposium in its October issue. The table on the right of this page is a summary of forecasts. The details of the forecasts can be sought by clicking on the name of the forecaster or forecasters.
The forecasts hold no good news for Senator Kerry.
Posted by Orrin Judd at September 7, 2004 10:50 AM
Let me see if I've got this straight. In August, Kerry ran the worst presidential campaign in my lifetime and Bush ran a nearly flawless campaign and Kerry is only 10 points or so behind.
If Kerry gets his act together and Bush makes some mistakes, it's very winnable for Kerry. I'm not sure how likely this scenario is but certainly it's not zero.
Yes. That's one reason why picking Senator Kerry was so stupid for the Democratic Party. Think what someone like Lieberman could do against President Bush.
On the other hand, it's not over until the Electoral College votes. We'll see what the results of the campaigns are then.
It helps if you add context to the thesis, instead of starting in August try going back a bit further, like this:
After an impressive come from behind victory in the Iowa caucuses to overtake the imploding Dean and Clark campaigns, Kerry breezed through the primaries with the full throated support of the Main Stream Media who saw him as the "most electable" candidate.
With a six month media honeymoon that had the press doing double duty by giving Kerry the most positive coverage possible while vilifying the Bush administration at every turn, the Kerry campaign entered the month of July more or less tied with the Bush campaign.
Millions of dollar from Billionaire buddies like George Soros, adds from 527 groups like MoveOn.org depicting President Bush as Hitler, and the selection of the media's darling Sen. Edwards as a running mate and John Kerry entered his convention with a 3 point lead.
One perfectly stage managed convention, lots of shiny happy democrats, lots of veterans, a big ol' "reporting for duty" with a sappy salute later followed by tons of positive spin from their Main Stream Media buddies and Kerry got - no bounce.
Enter the month of August with it's swift vets and...well, it did have the swift vets, and that was about it. Kerry and Bush are tied.
So after seven months of sweetheart coverage from the Main Stream Media, who have in many cases sacrificed their last shreds of journalistic integrity to help the man, Kerry succeeds in blowing the month of August because he can't respond to a single little 527 being run on a shoe-string budget that aired three adds in three states for a total cost of about $750,000 dollars?
Then Bush comes out of his convention with a coherent message, a clear plan for the next four years and a stiff challenge to Senator Kerry and in 4 days he's gone from tied to an 11 point (or 7 point) lead, and you still think it's winnable by Kerry? If he couldn't handle one little 527, how is he going to handle a sustained and coordinated attack from the Bush/Cheney/Rove machine? He won't, he can't, heck, he's self destructing right now. Kerry's toast.
I said that it's a greater than zero chance that Kerry wins - that makes it winnable by Kerry. I'll retract the "very" portion of "very winnable" but that's mostly just semantics.
I think MSM will continue to give sweetheart coverage to Kerry and bad to Bush. Soros will continue to spend his millions against Bush. I think you're underplaying Kerry's blunders thus far (as this very blog has continually pointed them out). I don't think it's in the bag for Bush.
Incumbent presidents with economies that have been growing don't lose. Period.