IT'S NOT A NATION:

Iraq's Survival Still at Stake, Report Warns (Reuters, 9/03/04)

Iraq could splinter into civil war and destabilize the whole region if the interim government, U.S. forces and United Nations fail to hold the ring among factions struggling for power, according to a British thinktank.

The best Iraq can hope for is to muddle through an 18-month political transition that began when Washington formally handed over sovereignty on June 28, said a report released this week by the prestigious Royal Institute of International Affairs.

Under the rosiest of three scenarios set out in the report, the interim government would prove able to keep majority Shi'ite Muslims, minority Sunni Muslims, secular nationalists and Kurdish leaders broadly engaged in the political process.

"No one will be very happy, but no one will monopolize power either," the report said. [...]

Under a darker scenario, Iraq would fragment and, if U.S.-led forces left prematurely, collapse into civil war. "Even if U.S. forces try to hold out and prop up the central authority, it may still lose control," the report said.

Kurdish separatism and Shi'ite assertiveness would disrupt the path to elections, while Sunnis kept up their insurgency.

Hostility to U.S. forces would grow, even if no unified nationalist movement emerged, especially if Washington were seen to be ignoring the interim government or calling the shots.

In the worst case, instability in Iraq would suck in its neighbors and cause a regional upheaval which the report said would be "beyond U.S. or multinational control."

Well, the Kurds are certainly going to have anm independent state and the Shi'a will dominate the rest of Iraq, so it's really just a question of whether the Sunni consent to be a normal democratic minority or whether they insist on being defeated militarily. Given that Iraq is surrounded by Syria, Sau'di Arabia, Iran, etc., it's hard to see why anyone would be unwilling to see a period of instability.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 6, 2004 10:38 PM