September 11, 2004


Poll: Bush Bounce Persists: Kerry remains behind, 52%-41%, in a three-way race (MARK SCHULMAN, Sep. 10, 2004, TIME)

Last week’s seismic voter shift to George W. Bush showed no signs of dwindling in this week’s Time Poll. Bush continues to lead Democratic challenger John Kerry among likely voters by double digits, 52% - 41%, in the three way race, with Nader at 3%, the same as last week. [...]

* Job rating: Bush is now at 56% approve – 41% disapprove, solidly above the 50% historical threshold for re-electing incumbents. A month ago, he was up only 5 points, with his favorability just at 50%.

At this rate, John Sasso's going to have to forge documents showing that George Bush was on the grassy knoll.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 11, 2004 2:26 PM

Hey, he could have been coming back home from school, since it was getting close to Thanksgiving. And the only flights from the northeast to Midland, Texas would have had to have gone through Dallas. And it was a Friday, so he could have just told his classmates he was taking a three-day weekend. And...

Posted by: John at September 11, 2004 4:28 PM

Zogby lists the margin as four points, the Associated Press as two points and Rasmussen as one. Newsweek has it at seven. The conclusion is that Bush is at least comfortably ahead, but Kerry has plenty of time to catch up, particularly if he makes a good debate impression. Bush should be considered favored to win, but it is far from a lock.

Posted by: Joel Thomas at September 11, 2004 6:24 PM

No doubt 60 Minutes will get hold of an e-mail that GWB sent to his buddies in 1963 bragging about it.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at September 11, 2004 7:53 PM

"...particularly if he makes a good debate impression..." Yeah, like he's suddenly going to become compentent--unlike the last few months/years?

If he has the capability to show a good impression in the debate, why hasn't he used any of that ability up to now?

Posted by: ray at September 11, 2004 8:36 PM

Well, Bush could always stumble badly during the debates...

It's usually a bad idea to bet against the favorite, but sometimes the "lock" to win trips up.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 11, 2004 9:27 PM

What debate?

Posted by: oj at September 11, 2004 9:32 PM

You don't think that Bush will agree to even one debate ?

You for thinking it, and him if that turns out to be the case.

However, I'm still waiting for Condi to get the VP slot.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 12, 2004 3:40 AM

Bush should agree to the Town Hall format. I'd pay good money to see Kerry take questions on gun control from a genial guy who's dressed like Al Borland from 'Home Improvement' and has a Southern accent to boot. You know that Kerry will talk down to him like he's the hired help and that will not play well in Appalachia or Pennsylvania and NJ.

If he is compelled to appear in a more traditional format, he should insist on Nader and whoever the Libertarian candidate is. This way he will compel Kerry to move left to keep Nader from shaving off pieces of his base and insure that he looks like a normal human being in the process.

Posted by: Bart at September 12, 2004 7:56 AM