September 16, 2004


Virtual Tie in Congressional Races (David W. Moore, 9/14/04, Gallup)

Public perceptions of the two major parties have gone through several changes this election year, with the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey showing Republicans and Democrats essentially tied on most rankings, and with the two parties neck and neck in the race to control Congress. The generic ballot shows Republicans up 48% to 46% among likely voters...

Not only is this a reversal of historic numbers, which have favored Democrats on the generic ballot for decades, but it suggests why some polls still show an improbably close presidential race--their models still assume a Democratic majority (really a plurality) in the nation, while in fact there is now a Republican one.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 16, 2004 2:09 PM
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