September 15, 2004

DEMOCRATIC HALF LIFE:

Asian-Americans lean toward Kerry (Jim Lobe, 9/16/04, Asia Times)

While both major candidates in the upcoming US presidential election continue to ignore the growing importance of the Asian-American vote, a new poll suggests that a plurality of the nearly 3 million members of that community intends to vote for John Kerry in November, not George W Bush.

But one of the most surprising findings in the poll was the large percentage of the Asian-American bloc who are still undecided less than two months away from the election: 20%. [...]

Overall, Kerry leads Bush among Asian-Americans by 43% versus 36%, a significant gap in favor of the Democrats, but a good deal smaller than the 14% margin of the 2000 presidential race. In that election, former vice president Al Gore won 55% of the Asian-American vote to Bush's 41% and Ralph Nader's 3%.

While Asian-American voters are disproportionately concentrated in California, where Kerry currently leads by a large margin, they could play decisive roles in a number of so-called "battleground states" where the candidates are so close that the race could still go either way.

In Florida, for example, there are an estimated 86,000 Asian-American voters - many, many times more than the mere 500 voters who gave Bush victory there four years ago. There are 65,000 voters from that community in the critical swing states of Michigan; 50,000 in Oregon; 47,000 in Pennsylvania; 34,000 in Arizona; nearly 30,000 in both Minnesota and Nevada; and about 20,000 in Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee.

Along with Arab-Americans, Asian-American voters are perhaps the most bipartisan of all US citizens of color. Latino Americans, with the exception of Cuban-American voters, have traditionally identified more closely with Democrats, and Kerry currently holds an almost 2-1 advantage over Bush among that bloc.

African-American voters are identified even more closely with the Democratic Party. Kerry is expected to receive between 80% and 90% of the black vote in November.


Given the margins Republicans run up among whites, the prospect of them cutting the margin among any of these ethnic groups by a half has to worrisome for Democrats.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 15, 2004 10:01 AM
Comments

If I am connecting the dots from a previous story correctly, it would seem that most of the Asian-Americans in Florida are Vietnamese, a group that Kerry seems destined to lose by a huge margin.

Posted by: HT at September 15, 2004 10:07 AM

On NPR this morning was a story about the latest Zogby polling of Arab Americans.

Since the Democratic convention, Bush has cut Kerry's advantage among this group by half.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at September 15, 2004 10:47 AM

Jeff: Was Zogby happy to report that?

Posted by: David Cohen at September 15, 2004 11:03 AM

That Zogby results seems counterintuitive since Kerry wants a sensitive war on terror while Bush is actively fighting Arabs in the middle east.

Posted by: AWW at September 15, 2004 11:14 AM

AWW:

Remember that 57% of Arab-Americans are Christians. Some, especially the Lebanese Maronites have no love lost for Arab Terrorism. That's the main reason thet're here.

Posted by: Jeff at September 15, 2004 11:21 AM

I'm suprised by the strongly pro-Kerry Hmong numbers. Would have thought the reverse.

Posted by: rds at September 15, 2004 2:12 PM

"Jeff: Was Zogby happy to report that?"

David:

It sounded like he was trying to spin this as a prelude to a Kerry resurgence.

But while the story woke me up faster than I ordinarily do at 5:25am, I can't guarantee I was able to gather all my wits before the piece ended.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at September 15, 2004 2:43 PM

democrats have always had the majority of the Hmong votes. Look at the politicians that they identify with: Bruce vento, Paul wellstone. So to me, its not a very big surprise.

Posted by: b at October 12, 2004 9:40 AM
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