September 20, 2004

CA, IL & NY ARE THE BATTLEGROUND (via Fred Jacobsen):

Kerry under pressure on Democratic turf: Polls show him tied with Bush in Pa.; behind in Iowa, Ore., N.M. (Tom Curry, 9/20/04, MSNBC)

A new crop of polls in six Democratic-leaning states released Monday showed that John Kerry has a lead in Michigan, while running neck-and-neck or trailing President Bush in five other states.

Most electoral vote strategizing begins with the assumption that Kerry would be able to hold all or nearly all of the 19 states Al Gore won in 2000. He could then add some of the states Bush narrowly won four years ago in order to get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

But the new polling data from Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin indicate that Kerry has much work to do on Democratic turf in the six weeks that remain before the votes are counted on election night.

With only 41 days of campaigning left, every day Kerry spends bolstering his support in states that Gore won in 2000 is a day he can't invest in the states Bush narrowly won, such as Nevada.

This is the Blue portion of the battleground polling that, as we mentioned yesterday, shows George W. Bush basically having a cakewalk in the supposed Red battleground states.

Poll results from 'blue' battleground states: MSNBC/Knight-Ridder polls conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research from Sept. 13 through Sept. 14, 2004 (MSNBC, Sept. 20, 2004)

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 20, 2004 8:13 PM

Great ... my state (IL) is one of the last key Kerry strongholds ... how embarrassing, especially if he goes on to lose 42-8 or something even worse, which looks increasingly likely. At least Keyes is shaking up some previously too-comfortable Dems.

Posted by: Jeff Brokaw at September 21, 2004 12:21 PM