September 13, 2004

BUYING SWAMPLAND:

Bush gets bump in latest poll (Bruce Alpert and Bill Walsh, 9/12/04, New Orleans Times-Picayune)

A new statewide poll shows President Bush comfortably ahead of Democratic nominee John Kerry in Louisiana. The survey by the Marketing Research Institute showed Bush leading 53 percent to 36 percent, a difference of 17 percentage points. A poll by the same firm in July showed the president up by 16 points. Some 600 registered voters were surveyed between Aug. 31 and Sept. 2, and the poll has a margin of error of 4.1 percent. The survey was conducted for a group of business people. The results come on the heels of a visit by Kerry to New Orleans last week and an announcement by the campaign that Louisiana is one of 20 battleground states targeted in a $45 million television ad buy. The Kerry camp said it hadn't seen the Marketing Research numbers but that it is undeterred. Since the most recent poll, the campaign has increased its Louisiana staff by about 30 people and by this week will have opened offices in seven cities. "We are charging forward," said Renee Lapeyrolerie, Kerry's spokeswoman in Louisiana.

Here's a perfect example of the Kerry campaign wasting resources in a state they can't win and whose Senate seat the Democrats are going to lose--resources which could be going to states where they might be able to keep things close enough to save Senate seats: NV, CA, OR, WA, AR, etc.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 13, 2004 8:30 AM
Comments

LA does seem to be a waste of Kerry's time and money. Also adding people and offices now, less than 2 months before the election, would seem to me to be a sign of poor party structure rather than something to brag about.
That said LA does have a history of funky voting and the GOP lost the recent governor and Senate races it thought it was going to win. Perhaps Kerry is trying to get Bush to spend money and time in LA to divert him from elsewhere. Bush should help Vitter win the Senate seat but other than that probably doesn't need to spend time in LA.

Posted by: AWW at September 13, 2004 9:02 AM

AWW:

It will probably get a little more attention just because it's such a convenient touch down between Crawford and FLA. I'd expect a couple of landing strip photo ops with Vitter down the home stretch.

Posted by: Jeff at September 13, 2004 10:44 AM

Presumably Kerry is trying to hold Vitter below 50%, after which the Dems can easily steal the low-turnout runoff. The big question: what if more exposure to Kerry turns Louisianans off Democrats entirely?

Posted by: pj at September 13, 2004 11:12 AM

The reason the GOP lost the LA govship was black turnout.

They knew they were losing in the morning, Bubba got on the line w/the candidate, her CM and the JJ of LA - he told his followers to sit this one out, they went to the bowling alleys, hair salons everywhere to get people to the polls.

Tide started turning around 4:30, IIRC.

Posted by: Sandy P at September 13, 2004 11:40 AM
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