September 3, 2004
BOING!!!!!:
Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead: TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader (TIME, 9/03/04)
For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6. [...]Methodology: The TIME Poll was conducted August 31 – September 2 by telephone among a random sample of 1,316 adults, including 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3% points, and +/- 4% points for likely voters. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs conducted the poll, and more complete results are attached.
CNN Inside Politics also just posted their electoral vote map and gave the President 284, not including PA, MI, NH. If anyone was wondering why the Democrats appeared to go insane this week, now you know.
MORE:
BUSH: 'I'LL NEVER RELENT' (DEBORAH ORIN, 9/03/04, NY Post)
Pollster Frank Luntz said Bush did very well with his MSNBC focus group of 21 swing voters in the much-watched state of Ohio — 17 had a positive reaction to the speech and only four were negative."This was a home run — that's the second strongest positive reaction I've ever had to a speech. Only Al Gore in 2000 did better," said Luntz, adding that 13 of his 21 voters switched to Bush from "undecided" or Kerry after the speech.
-Bush More Attractive Than Kerry: Poll (United Press International)
If rules of attraction decided the presidential election, President George W. Bush would win in a landslide, a new poll says.Posted by Orrin Judd at September 3, 2004 4:07 PMSome 67 percent, or more than two-thirds of American respondents believe Bush is more attractive than his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, says the poll by the independent global market research company GMI.
The mind boggles! I honestly thought the convention was going to leave him no more than a modest three or four points up. If this is right no *wonder* Kerry's been flailing.
Posted by: Taeyoung at September 3, 2004 3:42 PMCan't be. Conventions don't cause a bounce anymore. "Everybody" says so.
Posted by: Jeff at September 3, 2004 3:48 PMRight you are, Jeff. That's the conventional wisdom, and they don't call it "conventional wisdom" for nothin'!
Posted by: Mike Morley at September 3, 2004 3:58 PMHey, what happened to the "polarized" electorate? Where's Charlie Cook?
Posted by: sam at September 3, 2004 4:03 PMPlease note - the poll closed before the convention concluded.
Posted by: luciferous at September 3, 2004 4:05 PMWhat did the last Time poll say? They normally favor Dems so if Bush trailed Kerry in the last poll it is even more of a "boing".
I agree that the conventional wisdom was stupid. But I think what is happening is that the electorate is polarized but Kerry is such an awful candidate the die-hard Dems are just going to skip the election, making Bush look better.
One interesting number is the 3% for Nader. If Mr. Kerry remains ambivalent about the war he stands to lose support on the far Left as it becomes obvious he can't win. No one sells their soul for a loser.
Posted by: oj at September 3, 2004 4:11 PMluciferous--it says they polled 9/02, did they stop before the speech?
Posted by: oj at September 3, 2004 4:12 PMJust saw a note on another blog that says the Time poll, which normally prefers Dems, may be overstating Bush's lead and that when the lead narrows over the next few weeks they will use it to show Kerry gaining momentum and surging toward a win. I'm not sure I believe it but given the cynical nature of politics and manipulation of polls this might be true.
Posted by: AWW at September 3, 2004 4:19 PMAWW,
Now we are getting paranoid. Wouldn't it be better for Time to show no bounce for Bush, and claim that the whole GOP convention was a bust?
Posted by: sam at September 3, 2004 4:45 PMOJ - The bulk of the sample was taken before the speech was given so it's hard to tell how many who saw the speech were polled. The true gauge of the convention's cumulative effect will have to wait a few days for the buzz to percolate. When measured then, I expect it will register higher than now.
Posted by: luciferous at September 3, 2004 4:46 PMLuciferous:
Thanks. Yes, people generally dopn't know what they thought of such things until someone tells them and the boffo reviews should shape reaction. Funny thing, if you polled today I bet Kerry's speech would score very poorly because of the Vietnam firestorm it ignited.
Posted by: oj at September 3, 2004 4:59 PM"Only Al Gore in 2000 did better"
Scarry words, very scarry.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at September 3, 2004 5:07 PMThe article about the better looking candidate reminded me of something that struck me last night. Bush look youthful and dynamic at the convention. By contrast at his midnight rally in Ohio, Kerry looked either tired or medicated. I could never decide which it was. I suppose it could have just been the bad lighting at the event but his eyes looked half-closed.
Posted by: MB at September 3, 2004 5:38 PMso THAT'S why the stage was round on the fourth night. There was a trampoline hidden under it!
Posted by: Joe at September 3, 2004 7:27 PMTaeyoung:
You must adjust your expectations to oj's prognostications.
oj:
To your earlier point about Democratic internal polls: In light of the Time numbers, do you suspect that Democratic internal numbers are even worse?
Fred:
They're likely polling only in "swing" states--the Bush Campaign never does national polls. What will drive them over the edge is whern states like OH and PA move out of the margin of error and places like CA move into.
Posted by: oj at September 3, 2004 11:12 PMOJ - PA alone, which Kerry must win (assuming he doesn't get Florida or Ohio), should push them over.
Posted by: AWW at September 3, 2004 11:27 PMCNN is giving the President WI already.
Posted by: oj at September 3, 2004 11:40 PM