September 19, 2004

BIG RED (via Fred Jacobsen):

Tremor in the backyard (Phillip Matier, Andrew Ross, 9/19/04, SF Chronicle)

Pollsters for state Assemblyman Guy Houston of San Ramon, the Bay Area's lone Republican legislator, report a Bush surge out in the 'burbs.

A poll of 300 likely voters on Monday and Tuesday in the Dublin, Livermore and Pleasanton area found President Bush leading John Kerry, 48 to 40 percent.

The numbers are a near-reversal of a similar poll taken in August, after the Democratic convention. That one had Kerry outpacing Bush, 48 percent to 42 percent.

The polls, which have an error margin of plus or minus five percentage points, were taken by Public Opinion Strategies of Los Angeles.

What makes the latest results interesting is that -- unlike most Bay Area districts, which are overwhelmingly Democratic -- Houston's 15th Assembly District is 43 percent Republican, 38 percent Democratic, and 19 percent other parties or declined to state.

So, the district is what you might call a "swing" sample.

"And the biggest movement is among independents,'' said Republican consultant Steve Presson.

None of this is coming as much of a surprise to the Democrats. As one consultant quipped after hearing the news, "The Kerry campaign is starting to look more and more like the men's Olympic basketball team."


Small sample, discrete locale, but bad news for Democrats

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 19, 2004 6:48 PM
Comments

oj,

I just wanted to express my pleasure at seeing someone use the word "discrete" correctly for a change. Good job.

Now, you just have to learn how to spell "Plame."

Posted by: James Haney at September 19, 2004 7:39 PM

"Men's Olympic Basketball Team"??

They're starting to look more and more like the Washington Generals.

Posted by: H.D. Miller at September 19, 2004 8:23 PM

Look, OJ! Liberal humor! How'd that happen?

Posted by: Jeff Brokaw at September 20, 2004 11:12 AM
« SO EVEN THE FRENCH KNEW HE WAS BUYING IT (via Mike Daley): | Main | THE DEMOCRATIZATION OF ISLAM PROCEEDS APACE: »