September 3, 2004

BETTING ON THE BOUNCE:

If a technical analyst were to dissect this Presidential Election Winner futures tracking chart, it might look something like this.

The explanation would be that Bush has bounced off the classic double bottom (green line) and made it thru the larger downward trend line (red) that's been in place since January. If 'he' can get through the near term resistance at 59, retest it and move on, that should become support.

On the other hand, if you're a betting man, maybe these numbers are simpler to understand.

Either way, if the current momentum continues for the next 59 days or so, Orrin might get his 50 states after all. Wanna bet?

Posted by John Resnick at September 3, 2004 3:56 PM
Comments

Well according to Time magazine Bush got a double digit bounce, leading Kerry right onw 52% to 41% with Nader pulling down 3%. So my 58.6% share of the 2 party vote prediction is looking safe, 50-0 could be right around the corner.

Posted by: Robert Modean at September 3, 2004 4:05 PM

The difference between the election and a futures contract being that you can't sell it for a profit when you want, but must hold your position until expiration (11/2) where it will be either in the money or out.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at September 3, 2004 4:30 PM

Wanna bet? That Bush doesn't take all 50 states? At even odds? Sure. How much do you wanna bet?

Posted by: Bret at September 3, 2004 4:52 PM

Bret: Nope. You might get OJ to take that bet. Not me. The limb I'm out on only says 40 states.

Posted by: John Resnick at September 3, 2004 5:04 PM

Bush won't try for 50 states. He'll help other Republicans get elected. They will be more use to him than the last 10 states.

Posted by: Bob Hawkins at September 3, 2004 9:18 PM

re 50-- I was going to say the same thing. The only reason to get more that 271 is to make it harder for the Dems to try and steal it again.

One thing about Bush that's not remarkred on much is that he learns from his predecessors mistakes. One such was Reagan's "morning in America" reelection campaign being void of any goal other than to maximize Mondale's defeat. I like the idea that he's campaigning in the Upper Left Washington because the goal is to get Nethercutt into the Senate. 60-40 will have a longer lasting effect than 50-0.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 3, 2004 9:35 PM

Raoul:

I like your mathematics (said as a son of the Ballard).

Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at September 3, 2004 11:10 PM
« YES, VIRGINIA, THERE IS AN ANGLOSPHERE | Main | WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO "IS IT GOOD FOR THE JEWS"?: »