August 4, 2004


Why Bush is going to win (Zev Chafets, 8/04/04, NY Daily News)

In 1972, The New Yorker's movie critic, Pauline Kael, won herself a place in political lore by expressing astonishment at the Republicans' 49-state landslide victory. "How could that be?" she demanded. "I don't know a single person who voted for Nixon."

I don't live in such a rarified world, but most of my friends are voting for John Kerry. And I imagine that a good many will be shocked when President Bush wins in November.

It is possible that no Democrat could beat Bush this year. The President has Ralph Nader on his side, and demography. Since the 2000 election, shifts in population have added seven electoral votes to the Red Bush states and subtracted seven from Goreland.

This alone might be enough to put Bush over the top in a tight race. But despite the polls, I don't think this election will be close, and this time the Democratic establishment won't be able to blame the Supreme Court. If they're fair, they'll blame themselves. Since this is politics, they'll blame the candidate.

John Kerry is not a bad man. He probably wouldn't make a bad President. But he is a bad candidate in a terrible situation. He represents the wing of the Democratic Party that is imbued with a sense of its own moral, intellectual, cultural and social superiority. In short, he is the standard bearer for the unbearable.

It's just the economy, but the race is unwinnable.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 4, 2004 6:04 PM

Zev Chafets writes, of predicting a big Bush victory, "You heard it here first".

Of course, we know where we really heard it first.
This is olde news by BrosJudd standards.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at August 4, 2004 6:37 PM's Bush re-election contract is at 54.2, heading for 56.

The Swiftvets ad and book are the first hammer blows to Kerry, directed right at his emphasis at the convention of his Vietnam experience. When that is called into question, the entire scripting of the convention fails. Then will come the ads on his Senate voting record -- and he's toast.

Posted by: jd watson at August 4, 2004 9:16 PM

July employment numbers come out on Friday. Good job growth and steady/declining unemployment rate should really help Bush as people are starting to pay attention. Other economic stats were good this week also although the hike in oil is hurting the stock market.

Posted by: AWW at August 4, 2004 10:08 PM

How many barrels of oil has Soros bought recently ? Those are dollars better spent to defeat Bush than the money he throws away at

Posted by: Peter at August 5, 2004 3:55 AM