August 9, 2004
THE RUMSFELD REVOLUTION PROCEEDS:
New US strategy: 'lily pad' bases: US forces are moving overseas forces to smaller, transitory bases in places like Kyrgyzstan. (Ann Scott Tyson, 8/10/04, CS Monitor)
With its tall weeds, collapsed and rusted light towers, and an aircraft graveyard that includes Soviet-era wooden biplanes, Manas International Airport lacks the aura of a pioneering US military facility. [...][I]n many ways, the US air base here models the future posture of the 1.4-million-strong American active-duty forces as they prepare to undertake their biggest global repositioning since the Korean War.
Under dramatic changes envisioned by the Pentagon, tens of thousands of US troops will leave sprawling, citylike cold-war bases in Germany and Korea to return home in coming years. Meanwhile, smaller numbers will shift to austere yet strategically located new bases such as Manas, expanding the military's reach into world trouble spots.
A presence near lawless zonesAt the heart of the strategy is the Pentagon's desire to take the offense in a post-Sept. 11 world where future threats are unpredictable, although broadly seen as emanating from lawless or less developed regions. The goal, therefore, is the fast, flexible, and efficient projection of force - with "lily pad" bases like Manas playing crucial role as staging points.
In fact, the Pentagon's sweeping Global Posture Review, now under consideration by the Bush administration, is less focused on specific troop deployments than on extending broad military capabilities, US defense officials say. Especially vital is the "forward basing" of air and sea power able to skirt national boundaries and political sensitivities as well as the prepositioning of large, off-shore stocks of tanks, armored vehicles, weapons, and other military equipment that incoming troops can readily draw upon.
"We are not focused on maintaining numbers of troops overseas," said Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith at a recent House hearing. "Instead, we are focused on increasing the capabilities of our forces and those of our friends."
Tommy Franks and some of the other military guys are still prattling on about how they should have had more infantry and John Kerry is talking about adding more men to the military. They seem to be missing the point: Iraq was a proving ground to see what we could do with a comparatively small and relatively mobile force and it turned out we could do quite a bit. The lesson of Iraq is not that we needed more infantry but that we can get by with even less.
Occupations may prove to be a different matter--though few situations are likely to be as bad as Iraq was--but other nations and the UN should handle those non-combat duties anyway. It may be objected that we can't count on others to supply such forces but in most instances we can just offer them no choice. Take North Korea for example, it would be we who would have to depose the regime, but then we could just tell S. Korea, Japan, Russia and China to pony up troops or we're withdrawing anyway. Fear of the potential refugee problem guarantees their co-operation, even if unwilling.
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 9, 2004 9:42 PMThe Iraq major-combat mission would have proceeded LESS WELL in 2003 if more troops had been utilized. There would have been more friendly fire incidents and coordination problems, as combat congestion rose exponentially.
I wonder if the success of the lower-manpower high tech high-coordination approach let Rumsfeld appropriately proclaim, "See, I told you this is the way to go!" - - and unfortunately this squelched those voices presenting the wisdom of having (for sake of example) a doubling of forces for the policing- and stabilizing-phase of the Iraqi program.
Posted by: LarryH at August 9, 2004 10:01 PMI'd like to hear Jeff's comments about trying to operate jet aircraft from improvised bases.
We've been there before, folks, and it didn't work.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 9, 2004 10:13 PMThis is what this summer's naval exercises were really about.
Posted by: David Cohen at August 9, 2004 10:57 PMIn North Korea the US could force the surrounding countries to pony up, but it wouldn't have worked well in Iraq.
We want NKo to be absorbed by somebody else.
We didn't want Iraq to be divided between Kurdistan, Iran, Arabia and for all I know, Russia.
Suppose that the US went into the Sudan, shot up the capital, destroyed the current gov't, and then just withdrew, telling the surrounding countries, "Good luck !"
It would help short term, but within a year, the situation would be worse, probably a resumption of the civil war and certainly famine and starvation.
As pleasant as it would be to come in like gangbusters, and then just ride away, it's not a wise foreign policy.
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at August 9, 2004 11:04 PMan aircraft graveyard that includes Soviet-era wooden biplanes
Hey, bring some of those babies back in a C-5 and let old aircraft nuts help pay for all this.
Posted by: PapayaSF at August 9, 2004 11:06 PMMichael:
But there isn't even a hostile force to defeat in Sudan.
Posted by: oj at August 9, 2004 11:10 PMJanjaweed ?
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at August 10, 2004 2:05 AMThe place is full of our enemies
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 10, 2004 3:08 AM"Janjaweed" makes me think of some group in a bad Star Wars screen play.
Harry:
Depends on the type aircraft, and how far the base is from a larger support facility. A-10s do okay in austere environments and short-ish runways, but would still probably need rotating out every month or so.
F-16s & F-15s, being higher performance aircraft, need more care and feeding. (Although, without a peer competitor in most cases, those aircraft don't have to use nearly as much of their performance envelope, thereby significantly reducing stress on the airframes.)
Given the basic logistics--sufficient runway & fuel--it is certainly doable. My concern would be the additional strain put on our air refuelding assets, unless a larger footprint facility was available within 600 or so miles.
Ah, OJ maybe this little detail about who is going to occupy the country after the fact, could be resolved BEFORE we invade. Just a thought.
Posted by: h-man at August 10, 2004 7:21 AMJeff:
Harry read a book once where they didn't work, so such runways can't ever work.
Posted by: oj at August 10, 2004 8:42 AMI agree with OJ's general line that more troops now may be unnecessary, but I fail to see how more troops in the beginning would not have been good. With more troops we could have gone directly into holdouts like Fallujah and done a show of force even after Baghdad fell instead of allowing insurgents to gather. Second, more troops would mean a more orderly occupation which would boost the rule of law.
Invasion is easy. Occupation is hard.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at August 10, 2004 11:26 AMHey watch it OJ, Harry visited an improvised runway once. He knows.
Posted by: jefferson park at August 10, 2004 11:57 AMWas it next to the poster store where he learned that America's absenteeism problem is as bad as Europe's despite voluminous studies to the contrary?
Posted by: oj at August 10, 2004 12:03 PMLogistics, logistics, logistics.
We had lots of experience trying to operate aircraft out of improvised bases in the Southwest Pacific and in Korea.
When the Chicoms chased VMF-214 out of Wonsan, their Corsairs had not been able to use their 20-mm cannon for weeks because they'd gotten dirty and there was no way to clean them in the field.
Lots of guys got killed that way.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 10, 2004 2:33 PMWe'll never make it to the moon because the V-2 couldn't reach it.
Posted by: oj at August 10, 2004 2:39 PMI spent a few weeks with VMFA-314 in Twentynine Palms in 1981 on a Combined Arms Exercise (CAX). The Wing Engineer Squadron can put an Expeditionary Airfield (EAF) in place in about 3-4 days. They flatten out an area and assemble a landing strip using currogated steel mats. They also installed arresting cables and a steam catapult for the F-4 Phantoms to take off & land. The EAF could handle big C-5 cargo jets.
In the future the Marines will use the STOVL F-35 Joint Strike Fighter which will need a short runway for takeoffs and will land vertically.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at August 10, 2004 11:10 PMOK, have it your way. But if it's so easy, why haven't we taken out the Sudanese helicopters -- still attacking farmers as of yesterday, despite Orrin's proclamation of regime change in Khartoum>
Either we can turn on a dime or we can't.
We can.
But we haven't.
I rest my case.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 11, 2004 4:06 PMWe don't want to. We'd rather resolve it some other way. But we'll go if we have to.
Posted by: oj at August 11, 2004 4:13 PMAnd if a few people get killed while we dither, who's counting, right?
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 12, 2004 5:27 PMExactly. Idealism is always tempered by reality.
Posted by: oj at August 12, 2004 5:32 PM