August 4, 2004
SPEND IT ON YOUR PLANT:
CASH KILLS (James Surowiecki, 2004-08-02, The New Yorker)
Americans, we’re constantly being told, have forgotten how to save. We have two trillion dollars in consumer debt and a national savings rate of just two per cent, and the government, after a brief experiment with thrift in the Clinton years, has resumed its profligate ways. There is one glaring exception, though: American corporations, a group that in the past few years has learned to salt away its gains. Microsoft is at the head of the class; its sixty billion dollars in savings make it the richest company in the history of the world. But a host of other companies are sitting on giant piles of cash, too. Exxon Mobil, HewlettPackard, and Intel have more than ten billion dollars each in the bank. If you add up the savings of all the nonfinancial firms in the S. & P. 500, the total exceeds half a trillion dollars, double what it was in 1999, which means that in the past five years American companies have banked almost three hundred billion dollars.They’ve done it by being skinflints. They have been slow to hire new workers or give raises to the old ones. They’ve kept inventories low, in order to avoid being stuck with stuff they can’t sell, and they’ve been extremely cautious about investing in new machines or new factories or new ideas. And as the profits have rolled in they have been content, like Scrooge McDuck, to watch the gold pile up and gather dust.
There’s nothing sinister in all this. Conditions called for caution. Companies spent too much in the late nineties, and they needed to pull back. The productivity boom enabled them to produce more without hiring more people, and the uncertainty engendered by the September 11th attacks and the run-up to war with Iraq encouraged frugality and patience.
But it’s no cause for celebration, either. Forget the old saw that cash is king. When companies hoard, the economy suffers, because the money is just sitting there; capital needs to be invested in order to create wealth. (If you don’t shoot, you won’t score.) Workers suffer because fewer people have jobs and it’s more difficult to get a raise. Shareholders lose, too. They give companies their money in order to get a good return on it. Good returns are harder to come by when companies have billions of dollars languishing in money-market funds that pay one per cent a year—the corporate equivalent of money under a mattress. If a company can’t find anything fruitful to invest its cash in, it should just give it back to the shareholders, so that they can put it to productive use.
This is what Microsoft, among others, has decided to do. After decades of stockpiling, it announced the other day that it will pay a special thirty-two-billion-dollar dividend at the end of the year—a windfall that may make the wait seem worthwhile. A few other companies have increased their dividend payments, too, but, so far, most are keeping the coffers fully stocked. C.E.O.s argue that the cash gives them flexibility. If an attractive new project comes along, they can move quickly, instead of having to drum up capital in the marketplace.
There are a few industries, such as pharmaceuticals, where this may be necessary. But, in most cases, what C.E.O.s mean by flexibility is freedom—freedom from the scrutiny of lenders and shareholders, freedom from the consequences of bad decisions. Cash can be a cushion, a crutch, a hedge against failure.
By insulating executives from some of the rigors of competition, though, excess cash actually makes failure more likely. It can subvert discipline and encourage waste, much as a trust fund spoils an aimless graduate. History suggests that, the more cash a company has, the more inclined it will be to misuse it. In the late seventies, oil companies found themselves flush with cash as a result of a big spike in oil prices. They dithered, then poured it into exploration projects and acquisitions that brought them headaches and red ink. Similarly, a study of companies that won big legal judgments found that, like gamblers playing with house money, most of them squandered the money on bad bets.
The worst thing about a big pile of cash is that it encourages executives to go shopping.
The Administration should make it clear that it will closely scrutinize mergers and acquisitions and freely reject them. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 4, 2004 6:26 PM
The Administration should make it clear that it will closely scrutinize mergers and acquisitions and freely reject them.
That is an awfully statist policy, OJ. No doubt done with the best of intentions.
Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at August 4, 2004 6:49 PM1 word: Microsoft. that company has been overrun with cash for a decade, yet i see it rather far from collapsing. better yet, they've recently announced huge dividends in the coming years as a better form of investment than merrill lynch could ever offer.
and no, the gov't should not come close to touching M&A. the mere idea of some civil servants reviewing those deals sends chills down my spine.
Posted by: poormedicalstudent at August 4, 2004 7:00 PMBruce:
Conservatives rightly oppose concentrations of power everywhere--except in business, where their common sense deserts them.
Posted by: oj at August 4, 2004 7:28 PMWhen companies hoard, the economy suffers, because the money is just sitting there;
I don't think they're all keeping it under a mattress somewhere. Isn't company cash usually kept in bank accounts, and don't the banks lend out (i.e. invest) that money?
Posted by: PapayaSF at August 4, 2004 7:28 PMUh huh. Sa-a-a-y, what do you think a Democratic Administration could do with decision making power like this?
Posted by: Bruce Cleaver at August 4, 2004 7:50 PMNo cash, no commercial paper. No commercial paper, and a lot of businesses would shut down.
In the corporate world, having a lot of cash does not confer power. It draws a big target on your back that says, "Raid me."
Only the very biggest can safely pile up cash any more.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 4, 2004 9:11 PMoj that's just silly. You oppose concentrations of power -- and your remedy is to concentrate still more power in the hands of the State. I'm beginning to suspect that you're actually Ralph Nader, blogging under a pseudonym.
Posted by: joe shropshire at August 4, 2004 9:58 PMWe give the State power to protect ourselves. We need protection from corporations.
Posted by: oj at August 4, 2004 10:12 PMThis is just crazy talk.
Posted by: David Cohen at August 4, 2004 10:24 PMWhat does a corporation want with a slightly eccentric observer of our time from NH? What can a corporation do to said eccentric? Is GM going to build a factory behind your house? Is Wal-Mart going to turn your front yard into a parking lot? Is ADM going to spray your yard with chemicals? Please elaborate.
Posted by: jim hamlen at August 4, 2004 11:18 PMThis article is total rubbish. They are not spending that cash right now because there are no good investments. It is a sign of an impending downturn. They are looking at a 2 to 5 year horizon and seeing very little increased demand for their products and services that would justify increases in capital infrastructure. Consumer demand is spent. Rates will be on the rise. The cash is a survival cushion.
If they can't raise prices to defray the increased cost of capital, then the companies that can fund their operations internally without resorting to borrowing will have the edge.
The markets are telling you everything you need to know about the economy, you just have to be willing to accept what they are telling you.
jim:
MicroSoft, for example, has retarded development of the most important technologies of our time.
Posted by: oj at August 5, 2004 7:49 AMRobert:
There are plenty of good investments, not least because they need to upgrade the technology in their own companies. They're sitting on the money because of uncertainty, just like everyone's antsy about the market. It's just psychology.
Posted by: oj at August 5, 2004 7:53 AMoj is right on this. The really big rich companies are worse than governments at suppressing inovation. The only thing worse is a big government owned company like most of the postal unions of the world.
Some merger/acquision schemes work for a while (I'm waiting for Citibank to go south) but most crack up all by themselves because there is no business reason for them to exist, except to be big.
ATT got taken down. Good. In the late 50's their 1200 baud (maybe less) modems cost over $100/month and there were four, count them 4, available for all Connecticut potential users. UTC got two of them.
Imagine runnining the internet using those babies.
US Robotics (or some other company) made much less expensive (cheaper?) modems but ATT would not allow any non-ATT company to connect alien hardware to their phone lines.
IBM was another dedicated accumulator of cash and blocker/delayer of inovation. Without the kick in the butt they got, probably no PC's even today.
Socialism means big and no competition.
Capitalism doesn't mean big, it means meaningful competition.
Posted by: Uncle Bill at August 5, 2004 9:11 AMUncle Bill;
Of course, AT&T was created by the government, so it's part of the cure you and OJ are supporting. As for IBM, it was done in by competition, not by anything the government did. As for OJ's claim that Microsoft has stifled innovation, as someone who's been a professional in the industry since before Microsoft existed I find that claim ludicrous. I suppose no one remembers anymore, but it was Apple under Sculley that stopped innovating and allowed Microsoft the catch up. Most of the whining about Microsoft stifling innovation is from UNIX companies that haven't innovated themselves in decades.
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at August 5, 2004 11:10 AMThe most important thing is to see companies begin to hand out dividends again. That, obstensibly, is why stock purchases are made to begin with. You want to share in their profits.
To bad no one seemed to remember this when they were buying anything with a dot com in it.
Posted by: Chris Durnell at August 5, 2004 11:40 AMAmen, Chris.
On the other hand, capital intensive businesses are unable to retain profits for renewal and expansion, because the market executes them.
Markets are not nearly as great as some people like to think.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at August 5, 2004 4:57 PM