August 4, 2004
RED STATE:
Missourians Back Ban on Same-Sex Marriage (Monica Davies, NY Times, 8/4/2004)
Missouri voters on Tuesday overwhelmingly approved an amendment to the State Constitution barring gay marriage, becoming the first state to answer what has become a growing question since same-sex marriage became legal in Massachusetts.Posted by Stephen Judd at August 4, 2004 4:57 AMWith 93 percent of precincts reporting, the amendment had garnered 70 percent of the vote.
Slightly off topic, but it has been awhile since I have seen something for the "50-0 Files."
Is there a reason for that?
Posted by: Jeff Guinn at August 4, 2004 7:16 AMNote Missouri voted on this issue. In MA 4 or 5 appointed judges legalized same-sex marriage. May see more states voting like this. And one would think this bodes well for Bush in Missouri -perhaps Missouri won't be a "swing" state afterall (pun intended).
Related note - incumbent Dem governor Holden lost the Dem primary. GOP still has a good shot at picking up this governorship but polls showed Blunt (the GOP candidate) doing better against Holden than the primary winner (McCaskill).
Still not sure why so many in the GOP are afraid of the gay marriage issue. Issues that win 70% of the vote AND are consistent with party principles should be no brainers (except for the stupid party).
Posted by: kevin whited at August 4, 2004 8:44 AMKevin-
Soundbites, i.e. "intolerant, hateful, divisive, small-minded, bigoted...".
Posted by: Tom C, Stamford,Ct. at August 4, 2004 9:07 AMKevin - they're afraid because the media and libertarian bloggers portray them as knuckledraggers while conservatives get all caught up in the legality of constitutional amendments. Pushing for the FMA might have shown they think this is a winning issue. The vote in Missouri (which is being considered a 50-50 state) should give them some comfort on running on this issue.
Posted by: AWW at August 4, 2004 9:08 AMThe deep dark secret that the
GOP leadership wants to ignore is that hate
and intolerance can win this election. Sell
yourself as the hetero/white party and you will
win. Sell the Dem's as the party of..
a) Willie Horton
b) Pride Day
c) La Raza
This is the obvious strategy and the fact that
the party would ignore it is clear evidence of
the collusion that lies at the heart of this
two-party system.
It makes no sense for the Repubs to highlight the same-sex marriage issue. The numbers obviously break for the Repubs, and pushing the issue aggressively might only trigger a backlash. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
Aggressive exploitation of the issue really would make "hate" and "intolerance" buzzwords. Contrary to some advanced political theory, this is not a good thing. Bush has said all he needs to say. Everybody knows his position.
Posted by: Casey Abell at August 4, 2004 9:58 AMCasey:
True enough - let Andrew Sullivan wear his fingers to the bone writing about this issue. He won't win a majority outside of a few counties in any event. The GOP simply needs to repeat, quietly but firmly, that when the people vote on the issue, 70% plus are in agreement. Time to MOVE ON!
Posted by: jim hamlen at August 4, 2004 10:36 AMI live here in Missouri and am not sure how this bodes for the republicans. I just looked at the election results and it appears far more democrats voted in yesterdays primary than did republicans (59% dem. to 41% rep. based on election totals in the gubenatorial races). Now given the fact that the democrats had contentious races for far more offices statewide than did the republicans may explain the disparity in the number of primary voters. I also assume that there will be some crossover in november, but will it be enough to offset this difference? Let's just say my concern level went up a notch.
Posted by: MB at August 4, 2004 10:46 AMMB - I'm not in Missouri but I would venture that the more competitive Dem races is the largest factor behind the higher Dem numbers.
Also go check out the corner at NRO - one of the NRO made this assumption (more Dems voting) but was rebutted/refuted by several others.
AWW - At your suggestion I looked at what NRO's corner had to say, and came away with the same basic conclusion I had before. I still suspect that the disparity has alot to due with the dem's having far more high-profile races in play than did the repub's (the only competitive statewide repub race was for state treasurer). I'm also skeptical if very many repub voters crossed over to strategically vote in the dem gubenatorial primary in order to attempt to get the weaker candidate elected (although that thought did cross my mind when I went to vote!). And like I said before my concern level notched up, I haven't went into panic mode yet. Missouri is notoriously conservative in politics regardless of whether it's dem's or repub's being elected. I'm just a little concerned that the repub's might get complacent when November rolls around.
Posted by: MB at August 4, 2004 11:54 AMHow long until the Federal Supreme Court (all genuflect and burn the pinch of incense) rules it Unconstitutional by five-to-four?
Posted by: Ken at August 4, 2004 12:26 PMMB - subsequent posts to the Corner after I looked supported your view more.
And if the GOP gets complacent about the vote, especially after 2000, then they deserve to lose.
There was an AP story a couple weeks ago about swing states that said that Kerry was writing MO off due to polling indicating it was a lost cause. I found this rather shocking after reading so much about it being such a bellwether state. Shocking that it would be reported, not shocking that it would be true...
Posted by: brian at August 4, 2004 2:37 PMBrian - I saw the same (Kerry pulling out of MO) which surprised me in that polls showed Kerry with a slight lead or tied with Bush (latest poll now shows Bush +4). Perhaps the polls in other states that are close are more favorable to Bush than they appear.
Posted by: AWW at August 4, 2004 3:49 PMThat cant be good news for Kerry in a swing state. I hope we keep on getting good news like this.
