August 30, 2004


Poll: Bush seizes momentum in state (LESLEY CLARK, 8/30/04, Miami Herald)

The Herald/St. Petersburg Times survey suggests new challenges for the Democrat, who had been leading the president before many voters knew who he was.

Now, a month after the Democratic National Convention, Bush has taken the momentum from Kerry in the largest of the presidential battleground states, pulling 48 percent of registered voters surveyed, compared with 46 percent for Kerry. In a similar poll in March, just after his string of primary victories, Kerry held a five-percentage-point lead over Bush. [...]

The Florida poll suggests that after months of lagging popularity, Bush is getting a boost from voters impressed with his leadership, with nearly six in 10 voters calling him a ''strong leader.'' He made gains among independent voters -- who in March were far more likely to back Kerry -- and among women.

Is any Red State in play?

Bush Leads Kerry in 3 Key States (Ronald Brownstein and Kathleen Hennessey, August 26, 2004, LA Times)

President Bush has moved past Sen. John F. Kerry in three of the most hotly contested Midwestern battleground states despite continued doubts about the country's direction and the president's policies, new Los Angeles Times polls have found.

According to the surveys, Bush has opened leads within the margin of error in Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri — states at the top of both campaigns' priority lists.

In Missouri, Bush leads among registered voters 46% to 44%; in Wisconsin, he leads 48% to 44%; and in Ohio, the president holds a 49% to 44% advantage, the surveys found.

Ohio is nearly out of the margin of error now and some polls show the President ahead in PA.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 30, 2004 9:49 AM

And a while back you wondered when the Veterans were going to make their move. Their timing is just about perfect and we have the SBVT to thank.

Posted by: genecis at August 30, 2004 11:01 AM

Even Chauncey (The) Gardener could run a better campaign than this.

Posted by: Jeff Brokaw at August 30, 2004 11:06 AM

Last I heard, Pennsylvania could go either way. Half the polls say Bush ahead, the other half say Kerry.

Posted by: Ken at August 30, 2004 12:11 PM

Ken - true but note a) PA is a must win for Kerry unless he can pick off a similar amout of red state electoral votes which increasingly appears unlikely, and b) polls a few weeks ago showed Kerry almost +10 in PA and there were people arguing Bush should write off PA - the trend is going in the right direction.
Overall FL, MO, OH, NV, and NH are too close for comfort but I expect these will move into the Bush camp after the RNC along with perhaps IA, WI, MN.

Posted by: AWW at August 30, 2004 12:36 PM

Michigan is looking good too, with Kerry ahead but within the marign of error (I believe Kerry is 3 points up here.) And this in a state where the animus against Bush led Michigan Democrats to vote for McCain in the 2000 primary ... don't know if Michigan will go R but I can sure hope.

Posted by: John Barrett Jr. at August 30, 2004 6:07 PM
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