August 7, 2004
Voters Unmoved by Terror Alerts (TIME, Aug. 06, 2004)
Just as the Democratic Party convention gave the Kerry campaign very little "bounce" in the polls, so have last week's elevated terror alerts had only limited impact on an electorate already largely decided, according to the latest TIME poll. Senator John Kerry leads President Bush among likely voters by a margin of 48% to 43%, with Ralph Nader running at 4%. Kerry's lead has risen only slightly from immediately before the Democratic Convention, when polls found him edging out Bush by 46% - 43%, with Nader at 5%. [...]
Bush's ratings are little changed in past few weeks. His overall job approval ratings continues to hover at the 50% level (50% approve, 46% disapprove), the same as our previous poll's finding of 50%-47%.
Incumbent presidents have historically received about one % point over their approval rating on election day, which indicates that--barring catastrophe--this race is over. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 7, 2004 7:59 PM