August 31, 2004


Bush poll surprise: Internal numbers show Wisc.,Mich., Pa. tilt to President (Bob Cusack, 8/31/04, The Hill)

Internal Bush-Cheney campaign polling shows that the president is beating Sen. John Kerry in three states that Al Gore carried in 2000, campaign staff members told GOP operatives this week.

And John Thune has pulled ahead of Tom Daschle with 50%.

If you were betting today would you give Mr. Kerry more than: DC, HI, CA, IL, MD, ME, NY, & MA? (note that five of those 8 have Republican governors, making them quite winnable in a true landslide)

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 31, 2004 8:58 PM

What happened to your numerous 50-0 predictions a few months back? Down to 42-8, that's at least plausible.

Posted by: Bret at August 31, 2004 9:17 PM

In a few weeks, the Dems will find 42-8 acceptable.

Posted by: JP at August 31, 2004 9:55 PM

CT and RI are more likely than ME, aren't they?

Posted by: AC at August 31, 2004 9:55 PM

Maine could split 3-1 Kerry, with Bush taking the northern Congressional District.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at August 31, 2004 11:18 PM

PA alone to Bush would be a big swing (21 electoral votes). 40-10, 42-8 sounds right as the race stands now. If (big if) Kerry can get it together and Bush stumbles for some reason (economy, other) Kerry could get up to 15 states.
CT and RI are solid Dem despite GOP governors and I would think they would stay Kerry before Maine does.
Poll showing Thune ahead of Daschle was an NRSC poll. This race will come down to whether Thune can get enough votes to offset the voter fraud from the Indian reservations to win the race.

Posted by: AWW at August 31, 2004 11:21 PM

One other point. We've read that Bush doesn't want an empty victory (i.e. win 49 states but doesn't increase the House and Senate GOP seats). So Bush might accept losing some states by small margins if it means time and money are spent on House/Senate candidates elsewhere.

Posted by: AWW at August 31, 2004 11:24 PM


I asked what you'd say if you were betting.

I still think 50-0.

Remember, once the President settles in around 55% you'll get all the disaffected Democrats who can vote for a nut like Nader just to show they're pissed at Kerry and you get folks staying home and others switching to Bush just to be on the winning side.

Posted by: oj at August 31, 2004 11:56 PM

I think oj's thinking is if Reagan won 49 in 1984 then there's no reason why Bush couldn't win all 50 now. In the last 20 years the number of Republicans has grown while the Democrats have shrunk. And now that there is more of an alternative to the Leftstream media it's a lot easier for Republicans to fight back. And most importantly of all momentum will play the biggest role in determining the size of the landslide. Kerry is the absolute bare minimum candidate with no charisma or principles to fall back on. There must be some dignity remaining on the Left. Vote Nader or stay home instead of voting for the worst presidential candidate ever.

Posted by: andy at September 1, 2004 12:50 AM

I would much rather have Bush help push a Nethercutt or Coors or Thune over the top than put efforts into winning an otherwise meaningless victory in Dem strongholds like Hawaii or Illinois or Kennedyland

(And I would suspect that Mel Martinez' victory tonight makes Florida a bit harder for Kerry to win. Live by identity politics, die by identity politics.)

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 1, 2004 1:00 AM

Why not carry HI and pull a huge upset in the Senate race there using the D'Amato method?

Posted by: oj at September 1, 2004 1:14 AM

I don't want oj to stop dreaming/prognosticating (because it is amusing and cheering), but my money is on 31 states for Bush and not one more (he adds WI and MN, losing NH). If Bush gets over 40 states, oj, I really will send you a gift certificate for some nice restaurant where you live (that I will randomly choose via google). For my wedding, my wife and I got a gift certifcate for a local restaurant from non-Chicago relatives. We went and enjoyed it, but it turned out to be a restaurant catering apparently exclusively to gays called the "Dellwood Pickle."

Posted by: rds at September 1, 2004 1:19 AM

The WRAP in White River Junction, VT is a quaint little restaurant that I think Orrin and the Dr. Mrs. would enjoy immensely. It's very classy.

I love coming here when I've been listening to NPR and I'm in a "Oh, man, Bush is gonna lose!" funk. This blog really raises my morale. James Lilek's Daily Bleat often has the same effect.

Posted by: Governor Breck at September 1, 2004 8:27 AM


Bookstore. I don't go out to eat.

Posted by: oj at September 1, 2004 8:27 AM

As Instapundit pointed out, something wierd happened on the Iowa Electronic Market yesterday. W had been about a dime ahead, when the two contracts suddenly came together at 50/50. Tradesports didn't move. Looking at the activity, more than 5000 Kerry contracts traded. The next highest volume in August was just under 3000 contracts.

It's hard to imagine anyone would be pathetic enough to try to rig the IEM, but that might be what happened.

Posted by: David Cohen at September 1, 2004 9:38 AM

By the way, trading has more or less returned to where it had been.

Posted by: David Cohen at September 1, 2004 9:39 AM


Soros has used his money in even less effective ways this year.

Posted by: oj at September 1, 2004 9:52 AM

Be aware that the last trade (at midnight) is what is plotted at the Iowa market website. This means the graph is subject to high noise (or easy manipulation). The better metric to follow is the daily average prices -- which are not plotted, but available in table form.

Posted by: Dave P. at September 1, 2004 10:15 AM

Mr. Judd;

Who among us would be brave enough to get you a gift certificate at a bookstore when The Wife might find out about it?

P.S. Labor day is fast approaching...

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at September 1, 2004 10:52 AM

If it goes to 42-8, the Blue states Kerry loses are CA, WA, OR, NM, WI, MN, IA, MI, PA and (longshot) NJ.

I think it would take Heaven and Earth to move IL, VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY and of course, DC.

W can still grab half of Maine in any event.

And if W grabs Illinois, I think Senator Keyes would follow right in behind him...I think both of those events are highly unlikely.

Posted by: at September 1, 2004 10:55 AM