August 30, 2004


Undecided Voters Speak Out (

On the eve of the Republican National Convention, President George W. Bush is favored by twenty-five points over Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (35%-10%) among undecided likely voters when Libertarian, Constitution and Green Party presidential candidates are factored into the 2004 presidential race, according to a new Zogby/Williams Identity poll.

Their undecided status would seem to be nothing more than an affectation.

Posted by Orrin Judd at August 30, 2004 6:56 PM

I thought the Conventional Wisdom according to John Zogby(TM) was that the undecideds would go to Kerry, the challenger.

Posted by: jd watson at August 30, 2004 7:36 PM

I think I may have said this before, but if I did, it bears repeating: you do knock on wood when you post these items, right? Because I sure do when I read them.

Posted by: Guy T. at August 30, 2004 8:41 PM


The election is not just unlosable but it can't be close.

Posted by: oj at August 30, 2004 8:48 PM

If you look at the entire poll, things don't look quite that rosy for Bush. By a margin of 77% to 23% those same undecideds say they disapprove of Bush's performance. By a margin of 56% to 19% they say the country is going in the wrong direction.

Kerry would have reason to be disappointed in the poll results but Bush would be cautioned not to take too much comfort in those same results.

Posted by: Joel Thomas at August 30, 2004 8:49 PM

I guess I'm a little more pessimistic than OJ. I'm not saying he can't lose, I'm saying he won't lose. I also think that he's unlikely to get above 53%.

Posted by: David Cohen at August 30, 2004 9:15 PM


But hardly Eyore-like.

Posted by: oj at August 30, 2004 11:36 PM

I like the way that when some people "say the country is going in the wrong direction" we are supposed to then assume that implication that Kerry and the Dems are headed in the right direction. There are a lot of conservatives who say the same thing, and that Bush isn't doing enough to counter it.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at August 31, 2004 12:02 AM

Joel, I'm going to vote for W and I'm not happy w/his performance.

There are a lot of us who thought he wasn't TOUGH ENOUGH.

But that question usually isn't asked, is it?

Posted by: Sandy P at August 31, 2004 12:09 AM

I predict Bush wins 350 electoral votes, 55% of the vote.

But if he performs well in the debates and Kerry blunders (excellent chance of the latter), this could easily turn into a monstrous rout.

Posted by: pj at August 31, 2004 12:16 AM

It is quite true that one need not be opposed to Bush to say the country is going in the wrong direction. For instance, there are many people, and I know some of them, who are displeased because they don't think Bush is conservative enough. So of course they won't be voting for Kerry. On the other hand, considering that Republicans on the whole consider the country on the right track and Democrats on the whole consider the country on the wrong track, it still can't be overall good news for Bush if independents think things are going in the wrong direction.

I think 300 is the top number of electoral votes Bush will get. (And don't forget, if Colorado passes its electoral college reform amendment, Kerry will get as many as 4 Colorado electoral votes even if he loses the state.

I would tend to say Bush is more likely to be the winner, but I would put the odds at 60% for a Bush victory and 40% for a Kerry victory.

I would get the chances for Bush getting as many as 350 electoral votes to be about 25%.

Posted by: Joel Thomas at August 31, 2004 12:28 AM

Matthew Dowd, too, is saying that all the undecided's are conservative. In fact, he has said that they can't find a single undecided who identifies as liberal. This, I think, will explain much of the convention.

Posted by: David Cohen at August 31, 2004 7:59 AM