July 24, 2004
TOOTHLESS DRAGON:
Gender imbalance exacting social costs (Frank Ching, July 25, 2004, The Japan Times)
While the male/female ratio of newborns globally is about 105 boys to 100 girls, in China it is 117 boys for every 100 baby girls. In Guangdong province, neighboring Hong Kong, the ratio is 130 boys to 100 girls.This means that millions of men will be unable to find wives. By 2020, it is estimated, 30 to 40 million men of marriageable age will have to live as bachelors if current trends remain unchanged. The gender imbalance is also leading to greater numbers of girls being kidnapped, bigamy, prostitution and rape. Bride bartering or kidnapping is already commonplace in rural areas. China's crime rate has tripled in 20 years and most of the offenses appear to have been committed by rootless young men.
The gender imbalance has even reached the attention of President Hu Jintao. In March, Hu urged the country to deal with the problem as a key task.
Another serious problem is the aging of the population. While the phenomenon is one that marks all modern societies, in China society has aged fast because of the millions of unborn babies. This means that increasingly larger numbers of nonproductive elderly people will have to be supported by a shrinking pool of those economically active. [...]
According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, China today has 134 million people older than 60 -- more than 10 percent of the population. There are 94 million people older than 65, or more than 7 percent of the population. This means that China already meets the international criteria for an aging society. By 2025, 18.4 percent of the population will be older than 60 and, by 2050, more than 25 percent.
If China wants people to end the centuries-old preference for boys, it will have to create a safety net for its elderly so that people are not dependent on their children. Unless the problem is resolved, the target of making China a "fairly well-off" society by the middle of this century may prove elusive.
Nothing more quickly reveals a savants ignorance than fretting over the rise of China, a nation that's not only already in decline but is unlikely to do so as gracefully as the more mature nations of the West that are dying. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 24, 2004 8:56 PM
"Nothing more quickly reveals a savants ignorance than fretting over the rise of China, a nation that's not only already in decline but is unlikely to do so as gracefully as the more mature nations of the West that are dying."
Combine the above with a preponderance of brainwashed racist males within a totalitarian regime and only a fool wouldn't fret.
Posted by: genecis at July 25, 2004 9:29 AMDemographic problems alone don't define a nation.
China is clearly vibrant and dynamic. It has many, many hurdles ahead, but it's not in decline. China, (or some breakaway part of it), will end up in the top tier of nations by the end of the century.
Doesn't anyone else wonder why a shortage of marriagable females leads to bigamy? Do they really mean polyandry?
Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at July 25, 2004 7:01 PM"Combine the above with a preponderance of brainwashed racist males within a totalitarian regime and only a fool wouldn't fret."
Genecis, OJ's fantasy world is a very simple place where the strawmen are very well behaved. They're not Christian, so they will obviously decline and become extinct in very short order. You have to wonder why they haven't disappeared in a puff of smoke already.
Posted by: Robert Duquette at July 26, 2004 7:06 PMbrainwashed racists have a pretty miserable track record as world powers. Christians pretty good.
Posted by: oj at July 26, 2004 7:18 PMoj:
That's an interesting assessment.
People in Hong Kong are Chinese, as are the Taiwanese...
If the coastal areas eventually go their own way, why wouldn't they keep the China name, or some variant ?
Posted by: Michael Herdegen at July 27, 2004 7:51 AMThe same reason we don't call ourselves Britain, even thoughAmerica was British when it became a separate nation. But that's just semantics. No one would say that Taiwan is China, even if it is Chinese.
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 8:05 AM