THEY CAN'T VOTE, THEY'RE MUSLIM:

Indonesia to Hold First Direct Presidential Election: Incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri May Fail to Make Runoff (Alan Sipress, July 4, 2004,
Washington Post)

Indonesians vote Monday in their first direct presidential election, with polls showing incumbent Megawati Sukarnoputri in danger of failing to make the expected runoff between the top two finishers in a field of five candidates.

Opinion surveys released this week gave a former chief security minister, Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a lead of more than 20 percent over his nearest rivals but slightly less than the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright victory.

Indonesia, the third-largest democracy in the world, will be selecting a president and vice president at a time when many people have grown disillusioned with Megawati's lackluster performance in fighting corruption and reviving a listless economy.

If Megawati is ousted, it would mark a stunning reversal of fortunes for a woman who is not only the daughter of Indonesia's first president but was also symbol of the country's democratic aspirations after longtime dictator Suharto was forced from office by protesters in 1998. Megawati, a former vice president, gained the country's top spot three years ago.

But her defeat would also represent a significant step for democracy in Southeast Asia, where in the last generation only Thailand has succeeded in changing leaders through the electoral process. [...]

Yudhoyono's strong showing in these polls, coupled with Wiranto's mounting popularity, has raised concerns among some Indonesians that the country's military may be positioning itself to retake control. The two retired generals have responded that they are committed to the democratic reforms enacted after Suharto's downfall.

There's no surer road to democracy and economic liberalization historically than via a military leader who's committed to it.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 4, 2004 6:56 PM