THE QUITTERS (via David Hill, The Bronx):

Choice of Edwards Weakens Senate Democrats (David Freddoso, Jul 8, 2004, Human Events)

Because it is immune to filibuster, the federal budget is the special case where the two Democrats' disappearance could have the greatest effect. Senate leaders had given up last month on passing a budget this year because four moderate-to-liberal Republicans--Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins (Maine), Lincoln Chafee (R.I.), and John McCain (Ariz.)--defected and opposed it, meaning the resolution would narrowly fall short. These moderates wanted to use the budget process to block any new tax cuts from slipping into law.

But now John Kerry and John Edwards will be on the campaign trail for four months. If Kerry's performance so far is any indication, the two will likely miss nearly every vote in the Senate. So, do the new Senate math: the balance of power shifts from 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, 1 Independent, to 51R, 46D, 1I.

Add Independent Jim Jeffords to the Democrats and switch conservative Zell Miller (D.) to the Republicans, and you have a working Senate of 52R, 46D.

Account for the four anti-budget Republicans and you get 48 in favor of the budget, 50 against. Vice President Dick Cheney can break a 49-49 tie (only a majority of those present and voting is needed for passage), meaning that a one-vote swing might be enough to pass a budget. A generous offer to any number of moderate Democrats willing to deal--retiring Sen. John Breaux (D.-La.), for example, or Ben Nelson (D.-Neb.)--could tip the balance. Even genuine liberals in the Senate are occasionally bought with enough pork for their home states, and sometimes they're more likely to break ranks if the margin is closer.

Budget Chairman Don Nickles (R.-Okla.) has already been pondering this new situation, a spokeswoman says.

If Republicans are really ambitious, they could even add a week to the calendar and bring back some of the more controversial budget provisions, such as oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. (Because ANWR drilling will make money for the government, it can be passed as part of a concurrent budget resolution.) The last time someone tried to add that to the budget, it was barred on a narrow 52-48 vote.

Anyone know NC's law on replacing a Senator? Because it's easy to imagine Edwards quitting early so a Democratic governor could appoint Erskine Bowles and give him an advantage this Fall. Of course, if Bowles votes like a Democrat while he's in there he'll lose the election...

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 9, 2004 8:59 AM