July 25, 2004
THE CAMPAIGN HASN'T EVEN STARTED (via Kevin Whited):
Adviser predicts unpleasant race (Jack Douglas Jr., Maria Recio and John Moritz, 7/25/04,
Dallas-Fort Worth Star-Telegram)
Karen Hughes, the presidential adviser and confidante, was in Fort Worth last week, helping raise campaign cash for U.S. Rep. Kay Granger. She predicted a "very unpleasant campaign" between President Bush and presumptive Democratic challenger John Kerry."There are people out there who really hate the president," Hughes told Republican supporters at the fund-raiser at the Maddox-Muse Building downtown.
To help out, Hughes said she plans to join the president full time on the campaign trail beginning Aug. 15.
One of the most remarkable attributes of George W. Bush as both candidate and president is his discipline and the way he and Karl Rove have relentlessly stuck to the scripts they lay out and to their belief in how events flow. Each August of his presidency, while Mr. Bush has taken a month off, there have been big flaps about how he was getting killed in the polls and needed to react quickly. But he and Mr. Rove determined two things long ago: first, that the president's presence in our homes is too valuable a commodity to be wasted on frivolities; and, second, that no one pays any attention to anything in the Summer. Thus Mr. Bush's biggest month has tended to be September, when the nation goes back to work and school and he gets down to business, the most memorable example being this one, which entirely predictably silenced critics around the world.
Right now there's muttering about how the President hasn't outlined his agenda for the second term...yadda, yadda, yadda. But Mr. Bush knows that folks will be paying attention to his convention speech in a way they aren't paying attention to his typical stump speeches and it makes no sense to steal his own thunder. Folk may gripe that he's condensing his campaign down to just two months, but he knows that for most of us that's far too long, not too short.
And if you're looking for proof that he's not yet begun to fight, the fact that he's not even making Ms Hughes come back to work until August 15 suggests just how unhurried is his approach.
Posted by Orrin Judd at July 25, 2004 10:56 PMI wish I could share your optimism.
Bob Kaiser has another take: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10779-2004Jul24.html
This election looks a bit, though not as much as Kaiser says, like 1980. Even in the July polls but a potential blowout in November.
Bush does not need an agenda for 4 more years, but he does need some sense of optimism as to where he's leading us. There's a great story to tell but he needs to tell it.
Posted by: JAB at July 25, 2004 11:49 PMIt will be a blowout in November. The economic numbers tell us that, just as they did in '80.
Posted by: oj at July 25, 2004 11:53 PMGotta say one thing good for Canada-- while the "when will he call the election" bit can be theatric and annoying, getting the actual campaign over in a matter of weeks sure beats the permanant campagin we've got in this country. The race for '008 has already begun, and we haven't even had the '004 election yet.
Posted by: Raoul Ortega at July 26, 2004 12:32 AMSteven Den Beste A Masterstroke has an interesting analysis almost exactly like Orrin's:
"So what I conclude is that the next Bush "masterstroke" is going to be the November election. The Republicans and the Bush administration have been biding their time, and conserving their money. They have been carefully accumulating political ammunition and have resisted the urge to expend any of it too soon. They've laid the groundwork for a very effective campaign this autumn, and the Democrats are going to get routed."
Sorry -- hit post instead of preview and forgot the link. Here it is: A Masterstroke
Posted by: jd watson at July 26, 2004 12:52 AMoj: Perhaps more important than 'the folk,' I think the President and Mr. Rove know better than to squander the agenda with the media. If you yap about your agenda in August, then the media yawns with an 'old news, been-there-done-that' response to your acceptance speech.
Posted by: Fred Jacobsen (San Fran) at July 26, 2004 2:15 AMFred:
Just as important, a 6 or 8 week blitz doesn't give the media time to organize a counter-attack. With fresh statements almost every day, and by sticking to a few core themes, the Bush campaign can avoid the death of a thousand cuts from the media. Getting out the message about Edwards avoiding Medicare taxes while raking in $26 million won't hurt, either.
Posted by: jim hamlen at July 26, 2004 11:49 AMMr. Ortega:
I can't agree with you regarding shortening the campaign season. I don't follow sports I follow politics, and to shorten the campaign season would be to shorten the playoffs for me.
Sorry, I can't agree to that.
Posted by: Mike at July 26, 2004 12:23 PMWhat has given this entire year its weird quality is the media's messed up belief that most of America is as obsessed with presidential politcs as they are.
The media have been firing their heavy cannons at Bush all Spring and Summer. If you believe the polls, they have chipped away at him to some degree, but its not over and its a long time until November.
The Campaign begins in earnest in September. The Bush campaign is well advised to keep its powder dry until then.
Some place there is a commercial showing clips of John Kerry denouncing American soldiers as war criminals, complete with an intro asking why he talks about Vietnam but not about this, ominous backround music and pictures from the North Vietnamese museum of Anti War Protestors. It won't air until October 26th.
Posted by: Robert Schwartz at July 26, 2004 2:08 PM