July 28, 2004


Kerry Support Soft in New Jersey (FDU Public Mind, 7/28/04)

With just a small lead at this point, Kerry still has some work to do in New Jersey. According to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, the Democratic challenger is ahead of George W. Bush in New Jersey by just 45%-43% with another 10% undecided.

"John Kerry has been relying on George W. Bush to give people a reason to vote for the Democratic ticket," said Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for PublicMind. "While Bush's troubles have surely rallied the Democratic base and some Democratic-leaning independents, Kerry will solidify his position in New Jersey only when he gives voters a reason to vote for him rather than just against George Bush."

Among Bush supporters, 80% say they are voting for the President rather than against his opponent. But among Kerry voters, only a third (32%) say they are voting for the Senator from Massachusetts while two-thirds say they are voting against George W. Bush. "New Jersey voters still don't know Kerry very well," added Larson. "The Democratic National Convention this week will give him the opportunity to tell voters here his story."

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 28, 2004 10:05 PM

You hear over and over from bloggers, the media, etc that Bush is in deep trouble and Kerry is going to win (easily according to some). Then you see a poll like this and others for states Kerry should be winning easily or needs to win (IA, WI, MN, etc) and it makes you think Bush is doing better than the bloggers think. Other polls for NJ shown at RealClearPolitics have Kerry leading by high single digits but they are June and earlier. Bush may also be benefitting from anti-Dem sentiment in NJ due to the Dem governor's problems.
Related note - at the NRO Corner a commenter noted that Bush would be reelected easily if it weren't for the Iraq war. This lends creedance to OJ's point that as the war fades from view and voters focus on the economy Bush will do ok.

Posted by: AWW at July 28, 2004 11:41 PM