July 27, 2004
THE 51ST:
Nuclear Israel: Belling the cat (Ehsan Ahrari, Asia Times)
In an era of intense global support for nuclear non-proliferation, Israel's unspoken possession of a nuclear arsenal - euphemistically known as an outcome of its policy of "strategic ambiguity" - is coming under increased criticism and limelight. Mohammad ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) - the United Nations' nuclear watchdog - visited Israel on Tuesday to talk to the government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon about making the Middle East a nuclear-free zone. Even though a spokesman of that agency denied that ElBaradei's mission was to ask the Jewish state to unravel its nuclear-weapons program, one is hard pressed to know how else that region would ever become a nuclear-free zone. According to the unclassified estimates of the US intelligence community of the late 1990s, Israel possesses between 75 and 130 nuclear weapons.If one were looking for a gaping example of US nuclear non-proliferation policy double standards, that it lets Israel continue to modernize its nuclear arsenal without even a word of criticism would fit the bill.
Statehood would obviate Israel's need for a nuclear deterrent of its own and aid non-proliferation efforts. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 27, 2004 8:48 AM
I really don't understand how people can go so far in life without accumulating any wisdom.
Ehsan Ahrari holds a PhD, (further proving that one can acquire a degree without acquiring an education), and bills himself as a "strategist", but also calls the IAEA a "force for morality".
Apparently, the IAEA's complete inability to detect North Korea and Libya's nuclear programmes, and the way Iran and Iraq played the IAEA, escapes his notice.
Further, it's not as though Israel built nuclear weapons for some vague and ill-defined future threat or out of paranoia; they're attacked on a regular basis.
The failure here is a familiar one.
Not of Israel to conform to accepted moral standards, but of Arab nations to meet any kind of minimum standard of effective governance.
What also doesn't get enough emphasis is that Israel has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and thus, unlike the other nations IAEA comes down on, is not in violation of "international law" for having nukes.
But I don't understand why OJ is so in favor of statehood for Israel.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 27, 2004 10:42 AMBecause it's doomed otherwise.
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 10:51 AMOf course, if Israel did become the 51st (or whatever) state, the next step would be to question America's need for nukes....
Either that or justify "asymmetrical warfare" against the US because it has them.
Posted by: Barry Meislin at July 27, 2004 10:54 AMHow would that mark a change?
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 11:01 AMIsrael's not doomed, but what it has to do to survive is pretty unpleasant, so it might not. But which of the threats against it would be solved by statehood?
In any event, the survival of Israel is not the same as the survival of Judaism. There is also some question about whether Judaism will survive, but that will be decided in the US regardless of what happens to Israel.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 27, 2004 11:09 AMDavid:
The inevitable demographic transformation into an Islamic state.
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 11:14 AM1. Why wouldn't that happen to Israel, the 51st state?
2. When we go to the doctor and ask him to cure our cancer, we're really not looking for him to shoot us in the head.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 27, 2004 12:15 PMIt would, but it wouldn't change the nature of the state. Also, immigration by Christian millennialists would be much easier--they'd likely outnumber the Muslims.
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 12:35 PMThat's my second point.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 27, 2004 1:26 PMYou're equating being an American Jew to being dead?
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 1:37 PMNo. I'm equating saving Israel from an Islamic future by importing millions of Christian millennialists to curing cancer by shooting the patient in the head.
If Israel is not the Jewish homeland, then what's the point? Give them all green cards and let them move to the Dakotas.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 27, 2004 3:18 PMBeing a Jewish homeland doesn't require political control. Indeed, the idea of statehood was a fairly late part of Zionism, wasn't it?
The Holy Lands aren't in the Dakotas, but that would have been a better option for all concerned than Israel turned out to be.
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 3:49 PMAfter seeing what they did with that arid bit of rocky ground, this North Dakotan would welcome any and all Isrealis who want to come here. (A lot of Scandinavians and Germans thought the Dakotas were the Promised Land. We are, after all, west of the Jordan.)
Posted by: Roy Jacobsen at July 27, 2004 4:12 PMBeing a Jewish homeland doesn't require political control.
True, I suppose. But Israel without the right of any Jew to make aliyah, to mention just one major part of Israeli identify, is not Israel.
As for statehood and Zionism, I'm no expert but I think that having a state was always the core of Zionism. A religious state in biblical Israel is a relatively late development in Zionism.
Posted by: David Cohen at July 27, 2004 4:27 PMHeck, we let Mexicans make aliyah, we can stretch the point for Jews--most of them are here already.
Posted by: oj at July 27, 2004 4:44 PM"Also, immigration by Christian millennialists would be much easier--they'd likely outnumber the Muslims."
"No. I'm equating saving Israel from an Islamic future by importing millions of Christian millennialists to curing cancer by shooting the patient in the head."
David, it's just that the new guy gets stuck with the crappy jobs that noone else wants, like babysitting the Millenials. Why do you think Puerto Rico won't sign on?
Posted by: Robert Duquette at July 28, 2004 1:37 AM