July 8, 2004

KURDISTAN, SHI'ASTAN, & ?:

Iraq Insurgency Larger Than Thought (JIM KRANE, 7/09/04, Associated Press)

The Iraq insurgency is far larger than the 5,000 guerrillas previously thought to be at its core, U.S. military officials say, and it's being led by well-armed Iraqi Sunnis angry at being pushed from power alongside Saddam Hussein.

Although U.S. military analysts disagree over the exact size, dozens of regional cells, often led by tribal sheiks and inspired by Sunni Muslim imams, can call upon part-time fighters to boost forces to as high as 20,000 — an estimate reflected in the insurgency's continued strength after U.S. forces killed as many as 4,000 in April alone.


The Sunni can't be allowed to disrupt the natural evolution of the Iraqi state towards democracy, regardless of what means are necessary to stop them.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 8, 2004 4:59 PM
Comments

I thought Sistani was going to keep these guys in line and/or once the handover occurred they wouldn't need to keep fighting since they would have the power?

Posted by: AWW at July 8, 2004 9:13 PM

The Sunni aren't going to have any power. They're a formerly oppressive minority--they'll be lucky to get out alive.

Posted by: oj at July 8, 2004 9:18 PM

AWW: Sistiani is the Shi'a leader. His people are the majority whom the Sunni formerly oppressed.

I think the way this works is that we get to play the part of Gen. Sherman marching through Georgia. 20 or 30K sunni men will have to die in the process.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at July 9, 2004 1:43 AM

If the article is correct, they have about 4-5 months left. Wonder if Tom Brokaw will talk about that tonight.

Posted by: jim hamlen at July 9, 2004 9:04 AM

Also: Flypaper, anyone?

I presume the non-Sunni Iraqs don't much like the local Sunni and are less than pleased with the folks comming in from the outside, regardless of which sect they belong to.

They do, however, pump up the bad guy (a.k.a. ' insurgency' head count.

Posted by: Uncle Bill at July 9, 2004 9:40 AM

Don't believe anything you read in the Associated Press.

The best way to deal with rebellious locals is to threaten to take away their property. Sherman showed the Southern elite they would lose everything if they continued to fight. Bush could have done the same to the Sunni but has not. Perhaps the new Iraqi government will.

Of course a reasonable argument could be made that Iraq, like all developing countries, would be better off broken up into nation-states. Alas that is not going to happen.

Posted by: John Doe at July 10, 2004 7:39 PM
« IT WOULD BE HARDER TO DO THE OPPOSITE: | Main | YOU DON'T GET PAID MORE FOR MAKING EVERYTHING CHEAPER: »