GOOD MONEY AFTER BAD:

A failure of imagination (Marc Erikson, 7/24/04, Asia Times)

The 9-11 Commission's report, made public this Thursday after being in the works for 20 months, had 46 more pages than the Senate's, but proves no more illuminating. The bipartisan panel (five Republicans, five Democrats) has revived the tired old proposal of creating the position of a cabinet-level official to oversee the nation's 15 or so intelligence agencies. To what effect or avail is anyone's guess. The report's one memorable phrase is that, "across the government, there were failures of imagination ..." Now, imagine that!

Meanwhile, Democratic presidential candidate Senator John Kerry has also gotten into the act. Apparently taking his cue from the 9-11 panel, he advocates the creation of a director to oversee all facets of US intelligence, wants to double spending for foreign clandestine operations, and calls for accelerating Federal Bureau of Investigation changes in handling of domestic intelligence.

While the Senate report for the most part is more boring than informative, it does contain some snippets worth noting, mainly Conclusion 6 (last sentence): "Most, if not all, of these problems [with prewar intelligence on Iraq] stem from a broken corporate culture and poor management, and will not be solved by additional funding and personnel" (my emphasis).

Senator Kerry may want to take note - as should the innumerable "former Central Intelligence Agency operative" talking heads on US television programs bewailing the (alleged) gross inadequacy in numbers of US human-intelligence resources (case officers, agents). The Senate report - rightly - points out that, "if an [intelligence] officer willing and able to take such an assignment [undercover activity in prewar Iraq] really is 'rare' at the CIA [as the Senate committee was told], the problem is less a question of resources than a need for dramatic changes in a risk averse corporate culture".

Well, indeed. And risk aversion is hardly the only point at issue. Risk aversion, whether in economic behavior (investing) or the intelligence trade, is a sign of intellectual calcification and of lack of creativity, self-confidence and moral conviction, and can't be fixed by throwing money or warm bodies at it. Much as in business, it's unconventional initiative informed by superior knowledge and insight, a contrarian attitude, and the ability to spring surprises and act decisively that succeed in intelligence.

Mr. Erikson is more than wrong here: what's most needed is a specific mission--toppling those remaining regimes in the world which are not liberal democratic--and intelligence reform requires someone who's radically contrarian (Admiral Poindexter, for instance). Most of all though, he's right that John Kerry's stated willingness to simply enact the proposals of these commissions is lunatic.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 25, 2004 4:23 PM