FOURTH AND SHORT:

The Germany That No Longer Works: Germany’s standing in the global economy is eroding and it is in danger of becoming obsolete as an economic actor. Former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Richard Fisher offers his advice to Germany on how to stay competitive. He argues that the first priority should be for Germans to overcome their fear of strong leaders. (Richard Fisher, July 06, 2004, The Globalist)

Can Germany hold its own in the New World of a reconfigured Europe, an ascendant China and a 21st Century America? Is German economic decline exaggerated? Or inevitable?

The answer to the first two questions is “no.” Unless it rapidly changes course, Germany cannot hold its own in the new world of a newly configured Europe, a rapacious China — and a flexible, highly adaptive American economy.

Germany has been impacted by the psychosis of defeat. It was defeated first by the Japanese in consumer electronics, then by the technology giants of the United States — and now by China

Germany’s economic decline is, if anything, understated — rather than exaggerated. And the decline of Germany’s economy and Germany’s role in the world is all but inevitable unless dramatic reforms are taken soon. Very soon.

Germany cannot hold its own without a wholesale revamping — without reinventing its economy. I do not say any of this lightly. Throughout my career, I have always felt a special affinity and closeness to Germany.

This is the challenge of German political leadership, be it for Angela Merkel or Roland Koch of the opposition Christian Democrats or Wolfgang Clement (Social Democrats) or Joschka Fischer (Green Party) — or maybe perhaps even Horst Köhler, the new President.

I understand the German fear of “strong leadership.” I know that the bogeyman of “der Führer” lives in many German closets. But, come on!

This seems wrong on every level: secular Europe's decline is inevitable; the Germans will welcome a "strong leader" when Turks get close to being the majority; but they don't want a strong leader who would actually make them work instead of living off the State.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 10, 2004 9:52 AM